Megan: Part XIII

In Part XII , I have made the following statements...

• For me, I believe that an investor's primary objective is to invest in only the good, quality companies at a reasonable price. And if that is the case, then the share price or the market reaction to the company's earnings is not in the equation. For the focus is always on gauging the quality of the company. ( If one puts the share price in the equation, the investor focus gets muddled because the likelyhood is that the investor might be focused on what the share will do in the market, will the share go up or will the share go down. And the actual focus on the quality of the company is soon forgotten. )

Ah... in the share market, can it work if one merely focus on the issue of the quality of a company?

Now before I continue, I have to ass-u-me one thing, and that is, me and you, the reader of this blog posting, we believe in investing. It makes no sense to continue reading if one believes otherwise. Right?

So as investor, do you believe that the main objective is to invest only in the good company at a cheap price?

And if so, the key issue is always on the quality of the company. And needless to say, if the company is NO LONGER GOOD, then it makes no sense that we continue to stay invested in the stock, right?

Now, how am I going to prove this issue to all?

Ah, for those that really knows me, I have simply been a big bad bear on Megan (and ... LOL... they are bored stiff reading my comments on Megan!)

Since when?

Well... I believe since 2003... since the very day, Megan decided to play that funky corporate music by purchasing MJC, a funky corporate exercise which saw Megan purchasing MJC, a company owned by its own majority shareholder.

Let me prove to you. Have a look at this screenshot of an old chap-lap forum. (the forum is closed hor).


That was posted on Sept 2003.

And here is another proof. Click here or have a look at the following screenshot. (Click on the picture to have a bigger view)

That was posted in May 2003.

The opinion back then was the Megan shareholders was using the company as a tool to enrich themselves. They, the Singaporean shareholders, used Megan Media, a listed company in Malaysia, to purchase a company in which they have own vested interests. And they sold the company at a premium and with the sale, the existing debts of MJC were sold to Megan.

As mentioned before, when I purchase a stock, I consider myself being a part owner of the business. A business partner. So when my business partner places their ownselves before me, how could I trust being a part owner of such a company? And most important of all, do I see myself benefiting in such a partnership? Can meh? How can I benefit when the owners main priority is to enrich their ownselves?

Hence, how would I rate such a company? How can I possibly value a company that I cannot trust?

Is it wise to buy and hold such a stock forever and ever?

Take a look at this Reuters chart. (do try to verify the accuracy of the chart hor...)

How?

Three worthwhile things to note...

Firstly, I have mentioned many times before (it would be too tedious to prove this also) that there was some real justifications to invest in Megan but this was in 2001. And as can be seen in the chart above, the early investor would have been rewarded nicely for their investment in Megan.

Secondly.. when Megan played their funky music in May 2003, wasn't it a good time to exit the investment?

Was May 2003 a good time to decide to AVOID/EXIT/STAY AWAY from Megan Media?

Ahh... as can see clearly from the chart, perhaps May 2003 wasn't the perfect time to exit Megan and that perhaps maybe Jan/Feb 2004 would have been a better time to exit Megan.

Yup.. it wasn't perfect.... but.... heyyyyyyyyyyyyyy..... was it shabby to exit Megan back in May 2003?

Lastly, buy and hold... if the company quality is no longer good.. is it wise to HOLD and HOPE that it becomes better? Well the best answer for that question is to look at this chart below.. see the devastating result for holding and hoping?

Ahh... yes... some could argue that all this is nonsense and irrelevant already because this is all past. And it's really make no sense to constantly looking at the rear view mirror when one drives... right?

So what lies in the future for Megan?

How will happen to the share price?

Ahh... let me say this again... I have no idea... but as an investor... my issue is simple.

How do I rate the quality of this company?

Now consider these issues.. the depleting cash, the rocketing debts, the rocketing inventory and the extreme high level of trade receivables, the integrity of the management...

and now we have the issue of how Megan accounts its profits (ie the issue of the depreciation rate)..

how? how do you rate the quality of Megan? Do you even think that Megan is an investment grade stock?

If no... why should you bother with the share price?

:D

Read more...

Megan: Part XII

I would like to share my dialogue with Grow_Thru_Life in the blog posting, Megan: Part XI

Grow_Thru_Life:

• Looks like the price went up as expected. I'll have to agree with Moola to 'show me da moneyzz' when it's loan increased and cash flow is decreasing.
  
  Well, I'd decided not looking anything about it until its next quarterly report. There should be other stocks more worth to study on...
  
  Anyway, I just wonder whether technical traders will buy in, seeing it's in uptrend. It'll be an interesting study on investor's behaviour for this.I wonder do they teach about investor's behaviour in uni?

My reply:

• Yes, when a company reports such a surge in corporate 'earnings', it is pretty likely that the share could see some demand in the market, resulting in a sharp rise in the share price.
  
  So how does this all this translate to the market player?
  
  For me, I believe that an investor's primary objective is to invest in only the good, quality companies at a reasonable price. And if that is the case, then the share price or the market reaction to the company's earnings is not in the equation. For the focus is always on gauging the quality of the company. ( If one puts the share price in the equation, the investor focus gets muddled because the likelyhood is that the investor might be focused on what the share will do in the market, will the share go up or will the share go down. And the actual focus on the quality of the company is soon forgotten. )
  
  Now if one is a market player, looking constantly to find a way to make money in the share market, then the study of the market behavior and also the market trends is utmost important.
  
  Which is a total different ball game.
  
  Yes?
  
  Which is right and which is wrong or which is the best way.. will always depend on the individual.
  
  Right or not?
  
  Anyway.. here's another food for thought.. ie... if your focus is on the company... ;-)
  
  Megan reportedly 'earned' some 20 million ringgit this current quarter. And yet this 20 million did NO good at all for the company. As argued, there is NO creation of wealth at all.
  
  How?
  
  How much do you reckon that Megan will need to earn?
  
  How much do you reckon that Megan will need to earn to seduce some real investors?
  
  40 million?
  
  60 million?
  
  And let's put that debt issue into perspective. Despite earning 20 million, debts has increased by another 25 million.
  
  How? Will Megan be able to setttle their 750 million debt?
  
  And at this rate... LOL... Megan will soon become a billion dollar company... a billion dollar in debt company! (Not possible? Or am I being too cynical? )
  
  And then, the implications in the issue of the sharp rise in inventory and the extremly high trade receivable is extremely serious and cannot be discounted at all.
  
  Why is the inventory increasing so much?
  
  What kind of inventory are we talking about? And since Megan's products is high tech, we really need to find out if the rise in inventory is caused by 'dead' stock.
  
  And what is so bad? Well.. what if Megan needs to write-off these inventory? 102 million wor. No small amount.
  
  And then the trade receivables.
  
  Such an extremely high trade receivables in Megan's books makes its sales/earnings questionable.
  
  Yes?
  
  No seriously sane businessman conducts their business in such a manner. Now when you consider that their ytd earnings for 3 quarters is only some 36 million, which sane businessman would have a trade receivable totalling more than 320 million? Doesn't one suspect that something is wrong somewhere?
  
  Ok, let's give Megan a benefit a doubt...
  
  Let's consider that there is no hanky panky here and that the company really does have some 320 million in trade receivables.
  
  Now the question then is why isn't the company collecting it?
  
  Is there a problem collecting money from these so-called receivables?
  
  But since the trade receivables have been constantly increasing, would one be wrong to conclude that Megan is seriously having problems collecting money?
  
  And how about putting their debt issue into perspective.
  
  If Megan could collect all these debts, then Megan need not borrow so much money, right?
  
  And since Megan had to borrow so much money, then isn't there a strong likelyhood that sooner and not later, Megan will have to write-off these trade receivables as doubful debts?
  
  Hmm... 320 million...and if they write-it off... how much losses do you reckon Megan have to record?
  
  Hmm... could I be wrong?
  
  Of course it is possible... but what if I am correct?
  
  And worse still... what if I am correct on both counts?
  
  What if Megan's inventory and trade receivables has to be restated? (320 mil + 102 mil wor!!!)
  
  Double whammy?

Quick ref:

• Megan
  Megan: Part II
  Megan: Part III
  Megan: Part IV
  Megan: Part V
  Megan: Part VI
  Megan: Part VII
  Megan: Part VIII
  Megan: Part IX
  Megan: Part X
  Megan: Part XI

Read more...

Megan: Part XI

Found this very interesting comment posted by Grow_Thru_Life in the blog posting, Megan: Part XI

• Anyway, regarding MEGAN, just my humble personal opinion, they set the depreciation charges from 20% to 10%, that means its machine can be used for 10 years.(I doubt we're still widely using DVD after 10 years :) They could upgrade it to HD-DVD but R&D is spent more on blu-ray instead. That's another topic so just ignore it for now.)
  
  Let us roughly count it from RAM's report.I'll have to ass-u&me here, sorry for that. 33 DVD lines (19m/line)still undergoing depreciation charges, 20%/annual = ~31.35m , as they reduce it to 10%/annual, there's a whopping 15.675m reduction in operating expense. (Anyway, the depreciation charges are 18.1m to be exact in the quarterly report) That explains the turnaround EPS. Is this consider a manipulation of accounting?
  
  I recalculate the EPS, assuming tax is the same but depreciation charges at 20%/annual, it's roughly only 0.01. (what a difference!)
  
  Anyway, I assume some investors will look at the EPS and buy the share, so price might be up a while until they notice it's another trick. (I was a buyer of MEGAN myself with huge(%wise) losses) Let's see. I might be wrong altogether.

Many thanks for the comments. It's extremely interesting that you have discovered that there's a huge variance in depreciation charges. And yes, logically speaking, when one decreases the depreciation charges, the end result will see an increase in the company's net earnings.

So, is there an attempt to deceive the investors by decreasing the rate of depreciation?

Is there an attempt to manipulate the numbers to make Megan's earnings look attractive?

How?

Is this cheating by Megan Media?

For me, I have always believe that accounting is just a starting point in our investment and that our investment should never be based solely on numbers, figures and yardsticks.

But this is just me. And in the stock market, opinions and views will always differ and that there will be many an investor who would invest based on numbers.. :D

Anyway, take the earnings per share issue.

Of course, with the huge reported jump in earnings, this might seduce those investors who has their eyes soley fixed on numbers, hence it would surprise me not if this share garners some buying interest.

Would I follow?

Nope.

Let me put this Megan into a whole new perspective. Let's ass-u-me Megan to be a guy called Joe and the would be investor of Megan to be Kathy, a gal.

Now Kathy and Joe are like boyfriend girlfriend and ass-u-me that Kathy is kinda a bit more realistic in life (kaka.. some might call her a money face hor)

So the reason Kathy goes out with Joe is that Joe is a up-coming young executive. (good prospect mah) Earning more and more money each single year or at least this is what Joe tells Kathy.

So recently, Joe tells Kathy that because of this new job prospect, which will pays him so much more salary, he needs to invest in himself. And to do that he needs to borrow more money. And after all the investments, Joe finally gets the new job and the much higher salary.

However, Kathy felt that something is not right somewhere. Despite the higher paying job, this Joe always no money one. Whenever they go 'kei-kei', Kathy always end-up paying the bills for one reason or another.

So Kathy decides to look deeper... (LOL!!... yeah, money face but isn't it logical for Kathy to check Joe's accounts.)

Now despite his higher salary, Joe's bank account has been depleting. Kathy wonders how can? She has been paying for most of the expenses. And then she discovered Joe's loan statements. Now despite getting more salary, Joe's loans keep increasing and increasing.

How? Kathy is wondering big time if Joe has been bruffing her on his salary and she totally cannot understand why Joe's personal loans keep increasing all the time. (Maybe Joe is cheating on her and Joe got another gal? Maybe Joe got gambling habits? Maybe Joe is a pure simple bull-shitter? how?)

Guess what Kathy should do....

:D

LOL!!!.... dunno whether me story telling is good or not.... :D

anywayyyy...

Now let's put Megan back into perspective.

Think of Megan's earnings to be the same as Joe's salary.

And ask ourselves a simple question: If Megan's earnings per share is really solid then how come Megan's cash keeps depleting?

Take this recent quarter as an example. Megan's earnings was reported at 19.8 million.

Fantastic.

But look at the cash balance. Think of yourself as Kathy, checking on Joe's bank balances.

Last quarter, Megan had 97.587 million in cash equivalents. This quarter? 54.370 million. WoW! Cash depleted some 43.217 million!

Where did all the Moola go?

For a company that announced it earned 19.8 million... why did the cash deplete by some 43.217 million?

And then the loans. Loans increase by another 25.040 million.

So how?

Again... if you are Kathy... and this is how Joe's personal finance looks like... would you stay or would you go?

And from a business perspective, say this company tells you it made some 19.8 million in cash, but its piggy bank decreased by some 43.217 million and its loans increased by some 25.040 million.... do you see any wealth creation within the company? Or do you see farther destruction of value within the company? If so, would you be a sucker to invest in such a company?

Again simple commonsense reasoning isn't it?

Anyway... the share price. LOL!!... would Megan see some upside or downside? I have no idea BUT from a business perspective or investment perspective, does it matter how much Megan trades? If a company makes 19.8 million and one cannot find any wealth creation within the company, does it make sense to invest in it at a cheap price? ie if Megan falls to 40 sen, would you buy?

Do you belive in the investing method of investing in a lousy business at a cheap price?

Or would it rather make more sense to invest in a good quality business at a cheap price?

Read more...

Megan: Part X

For quick reference, past postings..

• Megan
  Megan: Part II
  Megan: Part III
  Megan: Part IV
  Megan: Part V
  Megan: Part VI
  Megan: Part VII
  Megan: Part VIII
  Megan: Part IX

Megan announced its quarterly earnings today.

Let's take a look at what's posted in Part IX

Megan's latest numbers and new commens will be in PURPLE font.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Time to look at Megan Media Holdings again.. :D

Here's a good exercise. Remember all the concerns I mumbled about? Since Megan Media will be reporting their earnings this month, let's list all of them concerns again so that when Megan Media reports its earnings, we can see clearly if Megan's situation improved or not...

1. Declining Net Profits.

Here is the most recent 7 quarterly earnings. Read from left to right with the last being the latest. The worry was the clear decline in earnings.

• 12.7 mil, 14.3 mil, 15.1 mil, 15.64 mil, 21.1 mil, 12.9 mil, 3.9 mil, 19.837 mil

* ps... what's your expectations? :D

how? tremendous improvement wor... is this the turnaround one is waiting and HOPING for?

2. Declining Net Profit Margins.

The last 4 quarters net profit margins.. and clearly the concern was the drastic slump in profit margins!

• 7%, 8%, 5%, 3%, 9% ... good improvement wor... so far so good!!!!!... hmmmm.....

3. In Part VIII , the balance sheet concern...

Inventories.............................................. 73,543 102.462
Trade receivables..................................... 333,357 326.950
Other receivables,deposits & prepayments......18,505
Fixed deposits with licensed banks............... 3,589 1.096
Cash and bank balances.............................. 93,998 53.274 Where is Ze Moola???
Tax recoverable........................................ 410
Total...................................................... 523,402

The above was the snapshot of Megan's Current Assets in their last earnings report.

how???????? still good?

The concern was on ...

a) Trade receivables: 333.357 million. total now 326.950 million
b)Inventories: 73.543 million. total now 102.462 million (drastic worry?)

As mentioned and explained in that posting.. the trade receivables were soaring and so were the inventory levels.

Would we see any improvement? And how much improvement do we want to see?

And last but not least the debts issue.

Total borrowings for Megan now stands at 725.151 million. Would we see some decline in Megan's borrowings or would we see Megan borrowings increase yet again? emm... debts now is 750.191 million!!! Fiyoh!!! debts still INCREASING!!!

How?

If there is no drastic improvement or if all these concerns still continue to worsen... what's the most commonsense thing to do?

But then... again... commonsense would have told one to sell this stock years ago!

how?

here is some commentary from Megan itself...

• Thursday, 30 March, 2006
  
  Megan Media Holdings Berhad and its subsidiaries ("Megan" or "the Group") had on 30 March 2006 released its third quarter results to the Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad.
  
  The Group registered sales of RM214.9 million for the quarter ended 31 January 2006 and profit before tax of RM26.6 million.
  
  Third Quarter 2006 versus Third Quarter 2005
  
  Revenue increased marginally by RM2.9 million or 1.4% from RM212.0 million in the corresponding period of the preceding year to RM214.9 million. EBITDA increased by RM6.7 million and EBITDA margin increased by 2.8% respectively driven primarily by higher sales and production capacity of Digital Versatile Disc-Recordables (DVD-R) and increased in sales of Compact Disc-Recordables (CD-R).
  
  Pre-tax margin improved from 7.3% to 12.4% mainly due to lower depreciation expenses which was partially offset by higher financing costs. During the quarter, the Group has changed the depreciation rate of some of its assets from 20% to 10% per annum to better reflect the useful life of the assets.
  
  Third Quarter 2006 versus Second Quarter 2006
  
  Revenue recorded for the quarter was lower, RM214.9 million as compared with the previous quarter of RM248.3 million. The slide in revenue was mainly due to lower sales of outsourced products for the quarter, which then provided the Group with an improved EBITDA margin of 1.7% from 25.5% to 27.2%.
  
  Megan posted a higher operating and net profit of RM40.4 million and 19.8 million as compared with RM20.4 million and RM4.0 million respectively for the previous quarter.
  
  Business Outlook
  
  The outlook for optical storage products mainly DVD-R looks promising as global demand for DVD hardware (mainly DVD burners) is expected to grow by 50% in 2006, mainly due to a drop in prices of hardware. As a result, the 2006 global demand for DVD+R/-R discs is expected to increase to around 6.0 billion discs. Furthermore, cost pressure is expected to ease since recent development indicates that prices of polycarbonate are reducing from a high of USD3.40 per kg to USD2.90 per kg.

What's your vedict?

Comeon... share your comments.... :)

   Megan Media Holdings Bhd (7101.KU) - Malaysia
   3rd quarter ended Jan. 31:
   Figures are in Ringgit (MYR).
                                 2006               2005
Revenue                MYR214,936,000     MYR211,989,000
Pretax Profit              26,649,000         15,551,000
Net Profit                 19,837,000         15,642,000
Earnings Per Share           9.69 Sen          10.93 Sen
Dividend                      Omitted            Omitted
   9 months ended Jan. 31:
Revenue                   712,118,000        637,094,000
Pretax Profit              53,852,000         53,475,000
Net Profit                 36,763,000         45,060,000
Earnings Per Share          17.96 Sen          31.48 Sen
Dividend                      Omitted           1.50 Sen

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That Silver Birdie .. Part VI

Just saw that Standard and Poors had downloaded their research report on Silver Bird on Bursa Malaysia's Research website.

In that article, Standard and Poors have downgraded Silver Bird to a Hold (from Buy)

• We are downgrading our recommendation on Silver to a Hold (from Buy), given the limited upside to our revised 12-month target price of MYR0.71 (from MYR0.73 previously). Based on revised earnings,
  Silver is trading at PERs of 9.3x FY06 and 7.9x FY07, which are at significant discounts to the market, the consumer sector and its peers.
  However, on a fully diluted basis (for full warrants conversion), Silver’s PERs are, in our opinion, now at fair levels of 13.9x FY06 and 11.7x FY07.
  · We attribute a fair PER of 13.5x to Silver’s FY06 fully diluted EPS, based on a 10% discount to updated average market PER. After including our net DPS forecast at MYR0.02 for FY06, we arrive at our target price of MYR0.71.
  · We remain concerned with Silver’s high net gearing level of 76% as at 1QFY06. Silver’s answer is to sell some of its extra pieces of land in Nilai and other parts of Negeri Sembilan. It recently entered into a sale and leaseback agreement with Amanah Raya Berhad for its plant and office building in Shah Alam for an estimated MYR93 mln. As such, we expect its net gearing to fall to 60-70% over the next few
  years. Interest cover remains manageable at 5-6x.
  · Risks to our recommendation and target price include the possibility of smaller-than-expected start-up losses in SBI and a shorter period to breakeven point for its operations.

And the most interesting note is that Standard and Poors earnings estimate for fy 2006 to just 16.4 million.

OSK estimates? 47.4 million!!!

And let me repeat myself yet again...

Oh... what I find so strange is that after their over whelming bullish write-up on Aug 2005, OSK did not have a follow-up article on Silver Bird.

I really wonder why... perhaps that little birdie just flew up, up and awayyyyyyy....

:p

Read more...

Tanjong's Tropical Island Resort Investment

I was looking at Tanjong latest quarterly earnings when this statement in their earnings notes caught my attention.

• The Leisure segment recorded a RM76 million increase in revenue following the
  commencement of Tropical Islands operations in December 2004. The segment registered an operating loss of RM69 million in the current year due to delays in the completion of certain facilities in Tropical Islands which resulted in lower than expected admissions and revenue.

Hmm... commenced in Decemeber 2004, and had operating loss of rm69 million. No wonder Tanjung earnings wasn't too happening this quarter.

Let's go back a year ago, March 2005 and look at how this Tropical Island did. Now the notes in the earnings report was pretty sketchy, so I will use a snippet from RHB research notes back in March 2005.

• Tropical Island Resorts (TIR) losses to continue in FY01/06 but should be immaterial by FY01/07 and turn around in FY01/08. To recap, TIR reported a higher-than-expected operating loss of RM51 versus earlier expectations of RM30m start-up losses. The higher losses of TIR were due to delay in installing a “translucent” roof. The cold weather condition slowed installing work and the doom’s height of 107m did not help. As a result, TIR’s main attraction (the Rainforest) did not have the intended tropical sunlight effects. The delay has resulted in negative publicity, which in turn affected tourist arrivals.
  
  In addition to the start-up losses, the resort has yet to reach its optimum number of visitors and yield. To date, one of the four translucent roofs has been installed. A check with TIR’s web-site shows the significant difference in having a ranslucent and non-translucent roof (refer to the above picture). Installation of the roof is scheduled for completion in 3QFY01/06. We believe pre-completion tourist arrivals are not likely to hit optimal level, especially when it would miss out on the peak holiday season (summer months) in Europe. Thus, we expect TIR to remain in the red in FY01/06. However, we estimate that the operating losses would be trimmed from RM51m in FY01/05 to about RM33m in FY01/06.
  
  We were given to understand that with costs under control, TIR is expected to turn around and commence positive contribution in FY01/07. After the completion of the translucent roof, the company would adopt more focus and aggressive marketing efforts to attract visitors and hope to benefit from the spillover effect of the 2006 World Cup in Berlin. However, we have adopted more conservative assumptions on tourist arrivals and costs. We expect an immaterial operating loss of RM0.2m. For FY01/08, we are forecasting RM11.6m operating profit on account of higher visitors.

So what is this TIR? Well, TIR stands for Tropical Island Resort. A project started by Tanjung back in 2003. And this Tropical Island Resort was built in Brand, 60 kilometer south of Berlin.

Yes, a tropical island resort in Germany. LOL!

• Tanjong and Mr Colin Au propose to enter into a joint venture agreement to develop the land into a "Tropical Island" holiday destination that provides an all year-round indoor tropical environment. The "Tropical Island" holiday destination will house a variety of tropical settings such as rainforest, sea, lagoon, beaches, water parks, exhibition centres, tropical flower world, resort hotels and spas to cater for all age group visitors.

Yup, this is probably what an investor do not want to see. Companies straying way off course in their own business objective. Totally bad.

Even the idea is lousy, isn't it? Say, you are a German and you want to go for a tropical holiday. Wouldn't you want to just fly away to a real tropical island than end up in Brand, Berlin? It wound really sound a drag of a holiday. Those Germans that I know, they really like to travel.

And needless to say, the stock was hammered when Tanjong made the announcement back in June 2003. Here is a short snippet then.

• Business Times - 24 Jun 2003
  KUALA LUMPUR
  Tanjong shares plunge on German theme park move
  
  Stock falls 6% as investors deem it a poor investment
  
  MALAYSIAN lottery and power firm Tanjong plc's surprise plan to build a mock tropical retreat in Germany knocked 6 per cent off its shares yesterday as investors guessed it may have made a wrong bet.
  
  Tanjong said on Friday it had bid an undisclosed amount for the land and assets of Germany's Cargolifter AG in a joint offer with Colin Au, the ex-chief executive of cruise operator Star Cruises Ltd.
  
  'Trying to have a theme park in Europe is not a good idea. Just look at Euro Disney,' said Nik Azhar Abdullah of Commerce Asset Fund Managers..... 'I'm a bit surprised with the type of investment. The European economy is not exactly booming right now,' said JP Morgan's Melvyn Boey.

And of course, the company was forced to defend itself...

• Friday, June 27, 2003
  Tanjong: German park not a significant investment
  
  TANJONG Plc said a bid for 500ha in Germany to build a holiday park will not require a “significant'' investment, addressing concerns its finances will be strained.
  
  “The project is not significant in the context of Tanjong,'' chairman Datuk Khoo Eng Choo told reporters after a shareholders' meeting in Kuala Lumpur.
  
  “Compared with net asset or capitalisation, it's not significant at all,” he said.

How would you feel, as an investor, when you hear the chairman declaring that such an investment to be not significant?

So how much was the total investment? It wasn't until July 7th 2003, that folks like me could read it in the papers.

• Tanjong, Au to spend RM304.6m on German tropical resort project
  GAMING and power company Tanjong plc is teaming up with Colin Au to develop a tropical resort in Germany at a total cost of RM304.5 million.
  
  The company said the total cost includes the RM76.1 million or 17.5 million euros cash it is paying for the assets of CargoLifter AG Group.
  
  The assets include a 500ha piece of land situated 60km south of Berlin, Germany. The land currently houses a free-standing hangar measuring 360 metres long, 210 metres wide and 107 metres high.
  
  Tanjong said that two German companies, Tropical Island Management GmbH and Tropical Island Asset Management GmbH will develop and operate an entertainment and leisure based tourist holiday destination with tropical island setting within the hangar. Both companies are 50 per cent owned by Tanjong Entertainment Sdn Bhd, a wholly owned subsidiary of Tanjong.
  
  “The project cost will be funded through a combination of equity funds, shareholder’s advances and bank borrowings to be secured by two German companies,” Tanjong said.
  
  It added that the project is only expected to be completed in the fourth quarter of 2004. “As such, it will not have any material effect on the group’s earnings for the current financial year ending January 31 2004,” it said.
  
  “This project is very much an extension of Tanjong’s existing involvement in the leisure and entertainment business. Over the years, we have been continuously identifying opportunities for the expansion of our business in this sector,” says Tanjong’s chairman Datuk Khoo Eng Choo in a statement to the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange.
  
  Au said: “We are confident that this project, when completed, will draw in repeat visitors, especially from Germany and its neighbouring European countries.”
  
  He said the tropical resort is also expected to feature monthly exhibits of a tropical country or region.
  
  “As a start, we hope to work with the Malaysian Tourist Promotion Board to feature Malaysia with its rich heritage of culture, arts, food, architecture, islands, resorts and its rainforest. Also, Malaysia’s cultural groups, musicians and dancers will have the opportunity to perform at the Tropical Island,” he added.
  
  Tanjong also agreed to set up a joint venture company with Au Leisure Investments Pte Ltd to identify, develop and operate entertainment and leisure based holiday destinations with tropical island setting.
  
  The joint venture company, Central Pacific Assets Ltd will have an initial share capital of 5 million euros (1 euro = RM4.35) and an eventual enlarged paid-up share capital of up to 30 million euros. Central will be owned equally by Au Leisure and Tanjong Entertainment.
  
  Tanjong said Au, who has 30 years of experience and expertise in international leisure and tourism industries shall be appointed as chief executive officer of Central. “The position of chairman and chief financial officer of Central shall be nominated by Tanjong Entertainment,” it added.

According to the closed Surf 88 back in 2003...

• The investment cost… With the details now unveiled, the expected investment in the venture is not as massive as earlier feared by investors. The jv will initially be capitalized at Euro 5M (RM21.8M) and eventually up to Euro 30M (RM130.5M). Tanjong’s 50% share hence works out to RM65.3M at the final stage (16.9 sen per Tanjong share or 1.6% of current share price). This is considered a relatively small investment for Tanjong, where funding is not a problem given more than RM300M free cash flow annually (cash flow from operations after dividend and capital expenditure).

So how?

Well, it looks like this 'not significant' investment for Tanjong cost some rm65.3 million.

And the end results?

This fiscal year 2006 earnings for Tanjong showed that the Tropical Island's reported opertaing losses of rm69 million!!

Ahh... when company embarks on a funky corporate exercise, like investing in a tropical island resort, most of the time, the company would end up producing some real funky results too for its investors.

Yeah dude... just play that funky music man!

---

edit 12.09 pm 29th March

found some pictures... via a google search on the phrase 'tropical island resort; brand; germany'..

err... how? look fun ar?

and here is a newsclip on it... Gone troppo in Germany

Read more...

Mems: Part VI

For quick references to the past blog postings on Mems:

1. Mems..
2. Mems: Part II
3. Mems: Part III
4. Mems: Part IV
5. Mems: Part V

I just noted that Mems just announced its quarterly earnings. Let's use Part IV as a quick reference on how Mems had been doing.

Let's brush all this aside and look at how Mems have done since listing.

Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/7/2004

1. Sales 10.732 million.
2. Net Profit 2.348 million. (margin 21.8%)
3. Piggy Bank 56.017 million.
4. Loans 5.02 million

Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/10/2004

1. Sales 12.037 million.
2. Net Profit 3.119 million. (margin 25.9%)
3. Piggy Bank 49.794 million.
4. Loans 4.884 million

Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/1/2005

1. Sales 12.254 million.
2. Net Profit 3.202 million. (margin 26.1%)
3. Piggy Bank 45.856 million.
4. Loans 4.259 million

Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 30/4/2005

1. Sales 12.226 million.
2. Net Profit 3.290 million. (margin 26.9%)
3. Piggy Bank 45.856 million.
4. Loans 4.259 million

Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/7/2005

1. Sales 11.712 million.
2. Net Profit 4.095 million. (margin 34.9%)
3. Piggy Bank 38.265 million.
4. Loans 3.808 million.

Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/10/2005

1. Sales 11.061 million.
2. Net Profit 3.009 million. (margin 27.2%)
3. Piggy Bank 29.658 million.
4. Loans 3.893 million.

==> 28th March 2006

Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/1/2006

1. Sales 12.322 million.
2. Net Profit 3.4.23 million. (Half ytd net profit 6.432 million)
3. Piggy Bank 22.508 million. (where da moola?)
4. Loans 3.396 million.

And I wonder about the issues I mentioned in Part IV

How?

That's how Mems had performed since listing, which was pretty decent i think. Yes, the cash flow is a bit questionable but all in Mems is decent. (Oooh.. cash flow looking really questionable!)

Did Mems deserve the rather optimistic projections, assumptions from folks in CIMB, OSK and even S&P?

How?

For me, i believe this is a rather simple example of an overly-hyped stock which simply failed to meet their expectations. It reminds me of Warren Buffett's mumbling that when the tide resides, we will know who has been swimming naked. Well, from Mems actual reported quarterly earnings, we can clearly see the nakedness in Mems share price and of course the insane earnings projections assigned to Mems.

So curious to know... since Mems has not meet these so-called expectations... i wonder... i really wonder... did Mems failed or did the market itself failed? What do you reckon?

Read more...

Glomac: Part IV

Just noted that Glomac reported its quarterly earnings.

For quick ref to past blog posting on Glomac:

1. Glomac
2. Glomac: Part II
3. Glomac: Part III

Tuesday March 28, 5:11 PM
TABLE: Malaysia's Glomac 3Q Net MYR7.10M Vs MYR9.80M

   Glomac Bhd (5020.KU) - Malaysia
   3rd quarter ended Jan. 31:
   Figures are in Ringgit (MYR).
                                 2006               2005
Revenue                 MYR68,652,000      MYR65,171,000
Pretax Profit              11,633,000         12,161,000
Net Profit                  7,098,000          9,801,000
Earnings Per Share           3.34 Sen           4.56 Sen
Dividend                     4.00 Sen           4.00 Sen
   9 months ended Jan. 31:
Revenue                   190,395,000        196,075,000
Pretax Profit              32,603,000         40,659,000
Net Profit                 21,276,000         30,075,000
Earnings Per Share           9.98 Sen          13.93 Sen
Dividend                     4.00 Sen           4.00 Sen

Read more...

Is StudioTraffic a Scam? Part V

Why am I blogging so much on StudioTrafffic?

Personally, I feel that this whole scheme is such a scam. And I find no reason yet to prove that I am wrong.

The following forum posting says it clearly:

• Hello ST members,
  
  John failed to appear as promised.
  
  With deep regret I have to brand our "dear" John as a theif, a thug, invisble roberrer and what not. It is very very disheartening that a progarm which everybody has kept high hopes is all set to crash, without any trace of its existence , except memories.
  
  It is all due to John who not only lacks the ethics but also minimum coyrtsey to wish his forum manager, a decent good bye.
  
  If he desrves any punishment then it should something more than execution, as the pain of execution lingers only for a while.
  
  I am going to post this in all other forums about autosurfs, whcih I come across.

Interesting tactic isn't it? That John asked for one week grace. And then he did not show up!

And more interestingly, if one puts that USD10.00 share thingy into perspective, shouldn't one question who puts that message in the main site? If John is not around, who put it there? And if John is around, why had he stay silent?

And then.. the forums are getting smaller, ie certain message threads are no long accessible as easily as before! For example, if one had not book-marked the site for Malaysians, well you won't be able to find it via normal surfing! And then, there were wide complaints that members getting banned and messages vanishing!

Here's proof to what I am saying. The section dedicated to Malaysians were accessible on this link: http://www.studiotraffic.org/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=27

Now this is the link to StudioTraffic forums: http://www.studiotraffic.org/forum/index.php?

Now see if you could find that Malaysian section.

Well here's my view on it... by denying direct access to all the older threads, isn't StudioTraffic trying to erase as much evidence as possible?

Now I won't be shocked if StudioTraffic forum links vanishes into deep, deep space soon!

Read more...

That Silver Birdie .. Part V

Managed to get hold of AmResearch write-up on Silver Bird.

Here are some of the points mentioned..

• Results analysis
  Below expectations. Silver Bird Group Bhd’s (“Silver Bird”) net profit for 1QFY06 of RM1.943m equalled only 6.5% of our FY06 net profit forecast of RM19.7m. We under-estimated the extent of losses from its operations in Singapore, which ballooned from a loss off RM1.76m in 4QFY05 to RM2.88m in 1QFY06.
  Only 6.5% of full-year net profit forecast? Management had previously indicated that it was confident of breaking even before the end of FY06. Taking this into consideration, we expected losses in the first half of the FY06 and a profit in the second half of the year. Based on the reported loss from its Singapore operations in 1QFY06, however, we are now increasing the expected losses from its Singapore operations from just over RM2m for the year to about RM8.6m. This will revise our earnings forecast for FY06 by nearly 20% to RM15.8m.
  Borrowings reduced significantly, and still a priority. Management was keen to point out that short-term borrowings had declined by a full RM10m from RM85m in the previous quarter. Silver Bird has been working hard to clean up its balance sheet in the light of an increasing interest rate environment which has increased the cost of its capital. In addition, both trade receivables and trade payables both declined significantly in 1QFY06 - implying a greater efficiency in collection of debts on the one hand and a better control on costs on the other, according to Management.
  Cashflow turns positive. The net impact of the above is a turnaround from a net debt position of RM9.1m at the end of 4QFY05 and a net cash position of RM5.0m at the end of 1QFY06. This swing of RM14m is impressive. We believe that this stands Silver Bird in good stead as it actively explores ways to reduce gearing as well as to promote efficiency, all whilst growing its profitability in Malaysia and gaining scale in Singa-pore.
  With strong prospects of a turaround of sorts in as early as this 2QFY06, we are recommending no change in our HOLD call for now, although its share price may fall sharply on the back of the lower than expected 1QFY06 earnings.

Hmmm... AmResearch is expecting the losses from its Singapore operations from just over RM2m for the year to about RM8.6m.

And AmResearch concludes that ..

• Valuation and Recommendation
  Given the likely profit contribution from its Singapore venture in FY07, bullish investors may not currently believe that SBG should be valued at less than 8.5x FY06 PER. This would imply a price target of RM0.62 based on our revised EPS of 73 sen in FY06. This excludes the dilutive effect of the 105m warrants still in the market though, as its current trading price of RM0.14 and conversion price of RM0.80 makes it unlikely to see many warrants being converted to Silver Bird shares in the next two to three years at the least.
  We reiterate our caution, though that there is a significant possibility of sustained elling pressure in the aftermath – should observers fail to absorb the turnaround in its overseas operations that Management is confident of seeing in the last quarter of FY06, at the latest.

Hmm... how?

Oh... what I find so strange is that after their over whelming bullish write-up on Aug 2005, OSK did not have a follow-up article on Silver Bird.

I really wonder why... perhaps that little birdie just flew up, up and awayyyyyyy....

:p

Read more...

That Silver Birdie.. Part IV

I just had a look at CIMB's research article posted on Bursa eResearch website: Silver Bird Group 1Q below - No icing on the cake from Singapore .

CIMB recommendation is a SELL

• Reiterate SELL. Our earnings downgrade reduces our target price from RM0.53 to RM0.48 based on an unchanged forward P/E of 8x. We reiterate our SELL recommendation in view of the downside risks to the share price in the form of: 1) bigger losses in Singapore, 2) deterioration of bakery margins, and 3) issuance of another EPS-dilutive instrument.
• Recommendation
  It appears that SBG is being hit on both the bakery and prepaid distribution fronts.
  The bakery margin has dropped substantially from just six months before due to pricier raw materials and QAF’s competitive edge on both sides of the causeway. We understand that QAF acquired Bonjour from Boustead Singapore in 2001 in a deal reportedly worth S$15m.
  At home, we doubt the prepaid distribution business can provide much of a buffer from the soft bakery showing as the former’s performance is far from impressive.
  Still, we believe SBG is unlikely to drop the mobile reload distribution business as it is popular among small grocers who do not have to put much cash upfront since they buy only a small number of cards for resale. The prepaid cards are distributed nationwide together with bakery products.
  We have cut our FY06 net profit by 23% to RM14.4m after factoring in RM4m additional losses from the Singapore operations. As such, FY06 net profit is expected to dip by 26% yoy. However, the drop in FD EPS is expected to be wider at 50% as the share base was swelled by the issuance of 105.3m warrants in Sep 05. We have also lowered our FY06 DPS assumption from 2 sen to 1 sen.
  Due to the earnings downgrade, we reduce our target price from RM0.53 to RM0.48 based on an unchanged forward P/E of 8x. We reiterate SELL recommendation. Consensus estimates are likely to be lowered too in light of these results.

hmmm... CIMB has lowered their forecast earnings for SBG to just rm14.4million.

How brown cow?

Think CIMB's Sell recommendation is without any justification?

Read more...

Is StudioTraffic a Scam? Part IV

WOW!!

Most money is still stuck.. and now... Studio Traffic has the guts to post this notice!

Still do not believe this is a SCAM?

Here's the message in full!

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Originally Posted by Studio Traffic Team

"New Plan coming for us"

The only way to make sure no one loses money is to continue operating.
That is what we are working hard towards. Yes, we have people laughing at us but we can't just give up. We will always stick to the philosophy of working hard to make sure no one loses money with us.

Studio Traffic is an online community with over 400.000 members . Our strength is in our members. ST potencial is based on our large membership and the comunity spirit

I´d like to express my gratitude to people who Have never deserted us and also offer to help especially those who are yet to be in profit.

Thank you,


*** New Plan Proposal ***

Members will have the ONE TIME opportunity to become ST owners through “Studio Share Program” .

The Studio Share Program launching is scheduled for Tuesday 28th
with an accessible rate of each share quoted at the price of just 10 dollars , with a share limit of 500 shares per member.

The shares rate will periodically increase up to a roof of $50 each one .

Those investors interested in reaching a higher than the limit amount (500 shares) will be allowed to acquire them prior to contact the management team for its approval.

*** Benefits of ownership. ***

The owner of a single share will receive all shareholder benefits, such as annual reports, invitations to shareholder meetings.etc


There will be surfing payout priority for members buying shares. The more they buy the better for them : the priority will increase

Shareholders will be looking at an amazing unit price of $10 and on top of this, these shares will NOT expire. These benefits will also be accompanied by a 30% bonus on share value, which will be paid periodically every 4 (four)months .


If you wish to learn more about being a Studio Traffic shareholder or for those investors interested in reaching a higher than the limit amount, do not hesitate to contact us at investor@studiotraffic.com

We are also seriously looking towards doing business with well-established companies in the lines of video stores, Internet providers,credit cards,etc, for these to advertise through our company, and to provide our members with access to their benefits.

Regarding blocked USA members accounts we are currently working on a plan for them to be able to surf again .

During this week we will update all of you about Accounts in Profits and Not in Profits.

***** REMEMBER *****

They ONLY option for buying shares will be through E-GOLD. There will not be any chance for buying them using Your Account Balance or any other payment processor.

Thank you for your patience and continuos support

Studio Traffic Team
###### INCREDIBLE OPORTUNITY ######

Members will have the ONE TIME opportunity to become ST owners through “Studio Share Program” .

The Studio Share Program launching is scheduled for Tuesday 28th
with an accessible rate of each share quoted at the price of just 10 dollars , with a share limit of 500 shares per member.

The shares rate will periodically increase up to a roof of $50 each one .

Those investors interested in reaching a higher than the limit amount (500 shares) will be allowed to acquire them prior to contact the management team for its approval.

*** Benefits of ownership. ***

The owner of a single share will receive all shareholder benefits, such as annual reports, invitations to shareholder meetings.etc


There will be surfing payout priority for members buying shares. The more they buy the better for them : the priority will increase

Shareholders will be looking at an amazing unit price of $10 and on top of this, these shares will NOT expire. These benefits will also be accompanied by a 30% bonus on share value, which will be paid periodically every 4 (four)months .


If you wish to learn more about being a Studio Traffic shareholder or for those investors interested in reaching a higher than the limit amount, do not hesitate to contact us at investor@studiotraffic.com

We are also seriously looking towards doing business with well-established companies in the lines of video stores, Internet providers,credit cards,etc, for these to advertise through our company, and to provide our members with access to their benefits.

***** REMEMBER *****

They ONLY option for buying shares will be through E-GOLD. There will not be any chance for buying them using Your Account Balance or any other payment processor.

Thank you for your continuous support

Studio Traffic Team

Read more...

That Silver Birdie.. Part III

On 23rd December 2005 there were 2 research reports posted on the Bursa Malaysia eResearch website.

One was from Standard and Poors who gave it a BUY recommendation.

• Recommendation & Investment Risks
  · We maintain our Buy recommendation on Silver with a 12-month target price of MYR0.73 (unchanged). This translates to an upside of 16.8%. Silver is trading at PERs of 6.8x FY05 and 6.2x FY06, which are at significant discounts to the market, the consumer sector and its peers. Even on a fully diluted basis (for full warrant conversion), PERs are still relatively inexpensive at 10.3x FY05 and 9.2x FY06.
  · We attribute a fair PER of 10.4x to Silver’s FY06 fully diluted EPS, based on a 20% discount to the average market PER. After including our net DPS forecast at MYR0.02 for FY06, we arrive at our target price of MYR0.73.
  · Our main concern is Silver’s high net gearing level of 85% as at end-FY05. Although Silver intends to sell some of its extra pieces of land in Nilai, Negeri Sembilan and Shah Alam, Selangor to raise cash to repay its debts, we expect its net gearing to remain at 80-90% over the next few years, due to capex requirements. Nevertheless, interest cover is still manageable at 5-6x.
  · Risks to our recommendation and target price include the possibility of larger-than-expected start-up losses in SBI, which could lead to higher borrowings to fund its capital requirements, thereby putting further pressure on Silver’s balance sheet.

Standard and Poors had projected a net earnings of 21.8 million for Silver Bird's fy 2006 earnings. (LOL! Omigod OSK in Aug 2005, estimated Silver Bird earnings for fy 2006 will be around 47.4 million!!! WOW! and WOW!!!)

The other report on 23rd December 2005 was from CIMB Securities Sdn Bhd who issued a SELL on Silver Bird.

• Recommendation
  FY06 performance will be pulled down by initial losses from SBG’s first full-year operations in the previously untested Singaporean market. SBG is expected to enjoy maiden net profit contribution from Singapore from FY07 onwards.
  SBG’s vehicle for entry into the Singapore market is Silver Bird International, which has a paid-up capital of RM40m. SBI is owned by SBG (60%), EPF (30%) and Mayban Ventures (10%). Products to Singapore are supplied by the Shah Alam plant. Mirroring the situation in Malaysia, Gardenia dominates the market in Singapore. We believe that Gardenia’s driving force is its healthier and calorierestricted bread lines. Its products are delivered to 18,000 sales points vs. approximately 9,600 for SBG. Gardenia is 70% owned by Singapore-based QAF Ltd and 30% owned by Malaysia’s public-listed Padiberas Nasional Bhd.
  Operations aside, our concerns over the issuance of convertibles and dilution of EPS remain. With SBG’s track record, we cannot discount the risk of further issuance, more so given the company’s high net gearing of 83%.
  We maintain our forecasts and SELL recommendation. Our target price is unchanged at RM0.53 based on 8x CY07 P/E. For FY06, we project a 4% dip in net profit, but a steeper drop of 36% for FD EPS due to an enlarged FD share base.
  Although it is understandable that SBG is not paying dividends in FY05 given its losses in Singapore, the absence of dividends will dampen investors’ interest in the stock. Investors can get better dividend yields of 6-12% through the more established F&B players, i.e. Nestle, F&N and Dutch Lady.

CIMB Securities had projected a net earnings of 18.6 million for Silver Bird's fy 2006 earnings.

LOL!!! Isn't it amazing that OSK in Aug 2005 had projected a net earnings of 47.4 million for Silver Bird fy 2006?

And two issues pointed by CIMB is worth noting...

• • …but 33% FD EPS contraction. Despite the 16% growth in net profit, FD EPS dropped by 33% as the share base was enlarged by the issuance of 105.3m warrants in Sep 05. Note that SBG has been issuing EPS-dilutive instruments since its listing in Jun 02, leading to a divergence between its net profit and FD EPS. Its high net gearing of 83% at end-Oct 05 is also a concern.
  • Warrant conversion. With a strike price of 80 sen, the 2005/2010 warrants are out of the money. However, on 8 Dec 05, 75,000 new shares were listed after conversion of some warrants.

By the way, it was on 16th Nov 2005 when CIMB initiated coverage on this stock. ( Silver Bird Group initiating coverage, Sell and 53sen target price )

And CIMB reasoned out why they gave such a low valuation for Silver Birdie...

• Valuation
  We value SBG at 8x CY07 FD EPS of 6.6 sen, giving us a target price of RM0.53.
  The benchmark 8x P/E is SBG’s average P/E for 2002-05.
  SBG is trading at lower P/Es than its peers London Biscuits and Hup Seng (Figure 3). However, we believe this discount is warranted given SBG’s history of issuing EPS-dilutive instruments since its listing in Jun 02. With its track record, we cannot discount the risk of further issuance, especially in view of SBG’s relatively high netgearing of about 80%. Since the start of the year, the share price has dropped by 48%, indicative of shareholders’ alarm over SBG’s falling FD EPS even as net profit continued to march upwards.
  For FY10/06, we project a 15% net profit drop primarily due to a higher tax rate of 28% from a very low 2-3% in FY02-05. Prior to FY10/06, Silver benefited from tax credits, which ended on 31 Oct 05. We assume a statutory tax rate of 28% for FY10/06-07.
  The FY10/06 net profit drop, unfortunately, translates into a wider 42% drop in FD EPS due to issuance of 105.3m warrants in Sep 05. The FY10/06 performance will also be pulled down by initial losses from SBG’s first full-year operations in the previously-untested Singaporean market. If the venture goes well, SBG will enjoy maiden net profit contribution from Singapore in FY10/07.

Hmm... the dilution of earnings from the issuance of more shares and the end result?

• The share price has dropped by 48%, indicative of shareholders’ alarm over SBG’s falling FD EPS even as net profit continued to march upwards.

Read more...

That Silver Birdie.. Part II

There's really so many interesting issues regarding Silver Bird.

1. Firstly in my opinion, I felt that the research article was simply way too optimistic. When the article was written last Aug 2005, the financial data available at that time (July 2005) showed that Silver Bird was a company which earned 9.7 million for its first half of its fiscal year 2005. To project a net earnings of 32 million meant that OSK is saying that Silver Bird will post a net earnings of 22.3 million for the second half of its fiscal year. Is that possible considering the fact Silver Bird only manage a first half net profit of 9.7 million? And this is way too optimistic in my opinion.

And I cannot help wondering about the xxx factor since the article is written on the 18th Aug 2005 during a time when Silver Bird is having lots of corporate exercises involving conversion of loan stocks and rights issue of warrants. The rights issue of warrants was even more interesting since on the 8th Aug 2005, Silver Bird had applied to seek a time extension period to implement the implementation of these rights isssue.

How? Did you get the same feeling as I did that perhaps this article was written for a reason?

2. In that OSK article Silver Bird: 'Bread'ing Value to Shareholders...

• Aggressive market penetration...
  WE BELIEVE IT COULD albeit at a slower growth pace . We reckon that the company would continue to report modest if not robust growth in the next few years. The company has strategized to implement the following:-

So OSK is saying that they reckon that Silver Bird will report modest if not robust growth in the next few years. Hmm.. modest if not robust growth.

Let's take a look at earnings table again to understand what OSK version of modest if not robust growth means.

Hmm from 16.8 million (fy 2004) => 32 million (fy 2005) => 47.4 million (fy 2006), which means OSK is saying that....

1. Silver Bird earnings will grow some 90% in fy 2005
2. After growing 90% in fy 2005, Silver Bird earnings will grow another 48% in fy 2006.
3. Which means that Silver Bird earnings will grow at a compounding annual rate of 68% from fy 2004 the following 2 years.

Err.... do you like this version of modest if not robust growth?

3. Now check this out... Silver Bird's 2005 Q1 earnings was only 1.123 million. Ahem!

Ok.. an earnings is still an earnings.. no doubt... but do remember this company's debts is at some 144.99 million. A worrry?

Oh .... and if one's reasoning to invest in Silver Bird was due to the OSK write-up, at this moment of time, isn't it clear that one's investment is made because of an overly optimistic write-up?

How?

Do you reckon that it is time to seriously review the justification to stay invested in this stock?

4. Back in 2004, Silver Bird embarked on an extensive capital expansion, building a state of art bakery in Shah Alam... at an cost of over 100 million. How does one rate such an expansion? Justifiable or not?

5. Let's look at what the company has got to say about its poor performance..

• REVIEW OF PERFORMANCE
  The Group registered a revenue growth of 12% for the quarter under review, achieving RM141.3 million compared to the preceding year’s corresponding period. Sales of consumer food registered 11% revenue growth, achieving RM37.6 million for this quarter as compared to RM33.9 million for the same quarter previous year due to the strong sales performance of the daily fresh products. Multicom successfully achieved revenue of RM103.7 million and registered 13% growth as compared to RM92.1 million for the same quarter previous year arising from improved sales channel arrangement.
  The Group registered an operating profit growth of 25% for the quarter under review, achieving RM6.0 million compared to the preceding year’s quarter corresponding period.
  

Hmmm... the company is only focused on mentioned its STRONG top line growth. Sales growth lah, operating profit growth lah... but .... what about ze Moola? Where about the bottom-line?

6. Let's see what Silver Bird management has got to say next...

• MATERIAL CHANGES IN THE QUARTERLY RESULTS AGAINST THE
  IMMEDIATE PRECEDING QUARTER’S RESULTS
  Profit before tax of RM1.2 million was 73% lower than the preceding quarter due to the share of start-up loss of RM2.9m from the jointly-controlled company, Silver Bird International Sdn Bhd. The loss is our investment upfront in Singapore to secure a sizeable market share and economies of scale to contribute positively in the longer term.

Ahh... some explaination at last.

Profit before tax.. was 73% lower. (This one I do not understand. Why do folks continue to report such Profit Before tax figures? Tax issue not important meh?)

Losses of 2.9million is due to investment costs in a bid to expand in Singapore. No problem. But even if one adds back 2.9 million (ie treat this 2.9 million as a cost of investment), Silver Bird's earnings would be around 4 million.

How?

Do you believe that Silver Bird is an investment gem?

Do you believe that it will be profitable holding Silver Bird as a long term, buy and hold stock?

Read more...

That Silver Birdie..

One of the quarterly earnings that caught my eye tonight was from Silver Bird Group.

Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/1/2006

Back in Sept 2005, as I was updating some quaterly earnings, Silver Bird's quarterly earnings caught my attention. I thought Silver Bird's performance was not too bad.

Net earnings was at 15.3 mil for 3 quarters of the fiscal year which is up from 11.7 mil the same period a year ago.

I thought it was pretty ok since it would appear that Silver Bird has some sort of earnings growth.

Anywayyyy... I then remembered that OSK had a massive write-up, Silver Bird: 'Bread'ing Value to Shareholders, on Aug 2005.

What caught my eye was OSK earnings forecast.

Now, if u look at the 05 numbers, OSK's estimates were wayyyyyyyyy too optimistic at 32 million!!!

Here's my reasoning. OSK report was made in Aug 2005. Silver Bird's last quarterly earnings was made on June 2005.

Silverbird made a half year profit of only 9.7 million. And what does OSK do a couple of weeks later? They project a net profit of over 32 million for the whole fiscal year.

Don't you wonder how did they work out such a rosy earnings projections?

Isn't it totally unreal?

See why I said OSK's estimates were wayyyyyyyyy too optimistic at 32 million?

And in Dec 2005, Silver Bird announced its 2005 Q4 quarterly earnings. Silver Bird made only a net earnings of 19.4 million for its fy 2005!

How?

This is how Silver Bird did for its 2006 Q1.

Good ah?

ps... OSK projected ... err... a total net profit of 47 million for fy 2006 for Silver Bird!

   Silver Bird Group Bhd (7136.KU) - Malaysia
   1st quarter ended Jan. 31:
   Figures are in Ringgit (MYR).
                                 2006               2005
Revenue                MYR141,358,000     MYR126,044,000
Pretax Profit               1,213,000          3,815,000
Net Profit                  1,123,000          3,725,000
Earnings Per Share           0.53 Sen           2.63 Sen
Dividend                      Omitted            Omitted

Read more...

NiCorp and Ze Sauce: Part II

Here's an update on an old posting: Nicorp and ze Sauce!

Flashback:

Last Friday, Oct 7th 2005, there was an article on Star Biz on Nicorp. See: Nicorp bids for contracts in O&G Sector

• “Naim Indah is very happy with its performance. The company's plans to venture into the oil and gas sector is a diversification strategy,” said a source close to the company.He said that venturing into this sector was a right move following the surge of oil prices.Naim Indah is believed to be close to securing local contracts worth several hundred million ringgit.As of end March this year, Naim Indah posted a net profit of RM6mil on the back of RM22.3mil in revenue. Its debts stood at RM2.8mil with RM137,000 in finance costs.Securing any contracts in this sector is expected to be significant for Naim Indah as it can mark a turning point for the company.

It really bugs the hell out of me whenever i read in the newsmedia this phrase "according to source(s)."

Hello world! What source(s) are we toking here? Maggie Sauce? or Chili Sauce? or issit See-Yaw?

So according to this sauce... “Naim Indah is very happy with its performance."

Sayyyyyy.... correct me if i am wrong here.... aren't we ONLY happy if and when OUR company is making big, big Moola?

Tiok boh?

We make moola... we be happy. Tiok boh? Sing when we are winning, eh?

Well just how is Nicorp doing?

Yes... "As of end March this year, Naim Indah posted a net profit of RM6mil on the back of RM22.3mil in revenue" .

That statement is true.

But.... but.... butt.... butttt.....

Six months have passed since then.

And 2 quarterly earnings have been posted by Nicorp since then...

see: Nicorp's last 5 quarters earnings

How brown cow?

Naim only has a sales revenue of around 3.71 million for the first half of the year. And a loss of 709k for the first half of the year.

Kakakaka....

Die larfing lah.....

And i wonder... i really wonder..... who this source is? The source who is allegedly close to Nicorp. The source who proudly proclaims to the planet Malaysia that Nicorp is very happy with its performance.

Hmmm.... i just wonder who and what this source is lah!!!

yeah... maybe... perhaps... it was plain old Maggie Sauce!

yeah.....

Show Me Ze Sauce!!!

:D

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Back to the present day.... March 2006

Naim Indah announced its earnings in Feb 2006 and as expected it wasn't too happening:

Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/12/2005

• REVIEW OF PERFORMANCE
  For the current financial period ended 31 December 2005, the Group’s revenue was RM12.52 million compared to RM22.30 in the prior financial period ended 31 December 2004. The decrease in income was mainly due to the Group’s delay in obtaining the necessary permits to extract round timber logs during the current financial period ended 31 December 2005.
  
  As a consequence, the Group recorded a lower profit before tax of approximately RM1.17 million compared to a profit before tax of approximately RM7.00 million for the prior financial period ended 31 December 2004.

Ahem... Profit Before Tax was rm1.17 million compared to rm7million a year ago.

Now I did not think for a second that NiCorp earnings was going to be great at all. The most laughable part in that earnings report was how NiCorp described its 2006 prospects...

• FUTURE YEAR PROSPECTS - 2006
  The Directors are of the view that the performance of the Group hinges substantially on the performance of its subsidiaries namely Jernih Makmur Sdn Bhd (Principal activity – logging and selling of round end timber logs) and Consistent Harvest Sdn Bhd (Principal activity – renting of shopping spaces in its shopping complex). Barring any unforeseen circumstances, the Directors are confident that they will be able to improve the performance of the Group in the coming year.

hmmm.... I wonder what happened to Nicorp and its Maggie Sauce?

Yeah... what about NiCorp's great venture into the Oil & Gas sector??

Anywhow... it's now March 2006.

And here is the interesting issue... do you know when the press started talking or rather when the press started promoting NiCorp's great Oil & Gas Venture?

Well have a look at this snippet...

• Saturday August 27, 2005
  
  
  Naim Indah's wise choice in oil and gas
  
  BY JOSE BARROCK
  
  NOBODY had bat an eyelid when little-known timber concession holder and property development company Naim Indah Corp Bhd announced recently that it has acquired a company with the intention of venturing into the oil and gas sector.
  
  What was then largely dismissed as a company jumping into the oil and gas bandwagon may just turn out to be a strategic move as sources say Naim Indah is close to inking a RM500mil contract for value added services in the sector in the Middle East. Industry sources say the announcement will be made mid September.
  

The classical SOURCES say was used to seduce readers to punt the stock...

So Aug 27th.... wonder how NiCorp has performed since then?

See how NiCorp was driven UP to a high of 23 sen....
and look at the consequences now. NiCorp closed today at 12 sen!!!

Pumped and Dumped!!!

Bravo!!!!

And OUR press was such a nice little tool.

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