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Over-Valued or Under-Valued?

Monday, June 4, 2007

FSO, Market Commentator, Mr. Rob Kirby, posted an interesting commentary, Anecdotal Asides and Questions Begging Answers.

In the commentary Mr. Kirby compares the stock market capital capitalization of China and US and compared them both to their respective GDP.

For China, Rob Kirby made the following remarks.

  • While the notional value [U.S. 500 billion] is very dated – it’s the percentage of GDP that I would like to draw everyone’s attention to – namely and explicitly, the market capitalization of the Chinese Stock Market as a percentage of GDP – 30%.

    Now, let’s consider that Chinese GDP data are “suspect” – owing to their arbitrarily and, as some would argue, artificially [manipulated] low currency “peg” to the U.S. Dollar – and as a result – Chinese GDP data are, in fact, under-reported.

And for the US, Mr. Kirby made the following comments.

  • With U.S. GDP running around 13 Trillion, we can CLEARLY see that stock market valuations [combined NYSE and NASDAQ] are running at 26 Trillion – or 200% of U.S. GDP!

So he asks, "So whose stock market is over-valued now?"

What say you?

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