The New SP 500 Bubble!
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Financial Sense, market commentator, Martin Goldberg, has made an interesting posting called Bull Market in Trust, Bear Market in Dividend Yields
This part I find so interesting:
The apparent failure near an all time high suggests that the year 2000 high in the S&P 500 may have marked the beginning of a new secular bear market which, in spite of the eight year march to a marginal new high, has not ended. Remember, the 2000 high included contributions from a known and confirmed technology stock market bubble. So was the more recent S&P 500 high totally “clean” and supported by valuations? In my view, this new high is characterized by a general stock market bubble which is not getting any attention in the media or financial industry for several structural reasons, not the least of which are the more obvious bubbles that are taking place (and bursting) in real estate, US consumer debt, and also commodities (actually the commodity bubble is a legitimate one caused largely by central bank-created inflation). When was the last time you heard any serious discussion of dividend yields of stocks in comparison to those that occurred prior to the 1990s race to the 2000 high? Today’s stock market bubble is Wall Street and the financial industries’ “dirty little secret.” They’ll only tell you what they need you to know.
Still, unless the market action warrants it, you don’t need to know that the average dividend yield of S&P 500 stocks is just under 1.9% and dividends of less than 3% used to be cause for valuation alarm. (There are 113 S&P 500 stocks that pay no dividends at all.) All you have to do is believe that today’s businesses don’t require that corporations share their profits in any meaningful way with its shareholders.
Click here for the rest of the posting: Bull Market in Trust, Bear Market in Dividend Yields
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