everything: October 2008

What a choke

Friday, October 31, 2008

Hmmm. . . .I am curious.
Choke was released nationally last Thursday (October 30 for those of you playing at home) and it has got me very interested. It's an adaption of a novel written by Chuck Palahniuk aka the guy who wrote Fight Club and stars the captivating Sam Rockwell. Firstly, Palahniuk is a brilliant writer who creates some peculiarly brilliant concepts and the last adaption of one of his novels was so awesome, I have high hopes for this one. Secondly, Sam Rockwell is in the lead and I'm a massive fan of his work. A veteran screen actor, Rockwell has starred in scores of films and always tends to take on unusual roles in movies ranging from indie and arthouse to blockbuster and major budget. My personal favourite Sam Rockwell role is playing the villain Nox in the first Charlie's Angels movie (nothing beats a man doing the moon walk to Pharoahe Monch). Choke is about a sex-addicted con-man (Rockwell) who pays for his mother's (Angelica Houston) hospital bills by playing on the sympathies of those who rescue him from choking to death. An interesting concept for what is no doubt an interesting film. It all depends on whether director and writer Clark Gregg can pull it off.
Hmmm yes this is definitely on my to-see list.

Above: Sam Rockwell

What ever happened to Keira Knightley?

What happened to her? Where did she go?

Can someone please tell me where this once exciting, bubbly actress went because if I have to see her in another period drama I’m going to slaughter a kitten. Or a baby Panda. I haven’t decided which would be more powerful for dramatic affect but you can rest assured I will maim a cute animal. Seriously, this chick used to have metaphorical balls and take on some adventurous roles but now . . . . now she has done more period pieces than Jessica Simpson has done shit comedies, and that's a lot! Keira first bounced on to our screens as feisty soccer player Juliette `Jules' Paxton in the 2002 smash Bend it like Beckham. She followed that promising break through performance with the uber-successful Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl and action flick King Arthur. She then tried her chops at character acting in The Jacket which was a critical success and made a return to comedy in the brilliant Love Actually. In one of my favourite Keira roles she went against the Hollywood-pretty-girl grain and took on a hard-hitting action bitch lead in Domino. From there my friends it is a sad, sad tale as she plummeted faster than Kevin Rudd’s popularity in to tired period dramas. Sigh. I’m bored already.

It started with Pride and Prejudice . . . . .

. . . . then Atonement . . . .

. . . . . then Silk . . . .

. . . .then The Edge of Love . . .

. . . .and now The Duchess.

Come on Keira! I know letting yourself get typecast in a period roles earned you an Oscar nomination at the age of 19 (impressive) but I honestly thought you’d just shag Mr. Darcy once and then get on to building an interesting, exciting career. Get your ringleted head in the game.

Massive Warnings From Shippers On Their Drying Baltic Dry Index

Ok, the Baltic Dry Index has plunged again. The index is now at 851 points!

Now this is not what I want to post today.

Susan Lee has written a decent write on the Baltic Dry Index on Forbes the very last two passages summarizes why the Index is so important.

A major factor behind the run-up was, of course, the commodity bubble. And the Baldry proved its worth as a leading indicator by turning down two months before that bubble burst. Plus, I would also point out, the Baldry forecast the slowing growth in China. Chinese demand for raw materials from the West--including a ravenous appetite for coal and iron ore--has been fierce. Some say it's been a critical driver of the Baldry. So the announcement a few weeks ago that growth in China has slowed wasn't news to those who've been following the six-month collapse of the Baltic Dry Index.

Simply put, if you're in the market for a quick and efficient way to spot the bottom of the global recession, watching the Baltic Dry is a very good bet.

Source: http://www.forbes.com/opinions/2008/10/30/baldry-baltic-index-oped-cx_sl_1031lee.html

And for the following two articles from two shipping giants highlights how dire the situation is.

Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Goldenport Holdings Plc, a U.K-listed shipowner, fell by a record amount in London trading after saying trade in commodity shipping has ``virtually halted.''

Goldenport fell as much as 21 percent to 88 pence before closing at 93 pence, valuing the company at 65 million pounds ($105 million). The stock has plunged 78 percent this year, compared with a 52 percent drop in the nine-member FTSE All-Share Industrial Transportation Index. The shares started trading in March 2006.

``Activity in the dry-bulk segment has virtually halted, with minimal trade taking place globally,'' Chief Executive Officer Paris Dragnis said in a statement today. Future leases will probably earn ``significantly lower rates.''

The company, based in Majuro, Marshall Islands, said customers who hired its vessels will likely return them as soon as they can, cutting contracted sales for the three years to 2010 by 8 percent to $324 million. One of its customers is Britannia Bulk Holdings Inc., which on Oct. 29 said its lenders asked for immediate repayment of $158.7 million outstanding on a loan.

The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of freight costs on international trade routes, has dropped 93 percent since May amid an iron-ore price dispute between China and Brazil and a freeze in the supply of credit to purchase cargoes.

The shipping line said the Achim, a container ship, was returned by a customer a month earlier than ``initially agreed,'' causing Goldenport to incur $700,000 in fuel and port fees. The ship was sold for demolition.

``I would like them to clarify what risks they have under each vessel,'' said Alex Chan, a London-based analyst at NBG International Ltd., who cut his rating on the stock to ``hold'' from ``buy'' on Oct. 28. ``I would like to see what other parties they deal with so we can analyze what risks are involved.''

Goldenport's protection and indemnity insurer is facing a ``growing deficit'' and will charge the shipping line $2 million as a one-off fee, the company said. ( Source: here )

WOW!

``Activity in the dry-bulk segment has virtually halted, with minimal trade taking place globally,'' Chief Executive Officer Paris Dragnis said in a statement today. Future leases will probably earn ``significantly lower rates.''

That one statement above is outright scary. We are not talking just talking about lower shipping rates but that the activity has halted brings a whole new perspective to the shipping industry!

On Bangkok Post, one should really pay attention to what Chandchutha Chandratat, managing director of Thoresen Thai Agencies Plc (TTA) is saying. TTA: Rate plunge will hurt

Thoresen Thai Agencies Plc (TTA), the country's biggest dry bulk shipper, says a sharp drop in freight rates in the wake of the global credit crunch would hit its results in the next two years.

Shipping rates have plunged to a six-year low as cargoes are stranded by tighter trade finance and the global economic slowdown curbs demand for raw materials, said M.L. Chandchutha Chandratat, the TTA managing director.

''Traders are finding it hard to get letters of credit that guarantee payments for goods, while banks are wary of financing commodities and shipping transactions,'' he said. ''This symptom has already been felt, and yes, this is going to hit us in 2009 and 2010.''

The Baltic Dry Index, the main gauge of shipping costs for commodities, fell 5.8% to 925 on Wednesday, down 92% from its peak in May at 11,793.

TTA earned 4.97 billion baht on revenues of 21.3 billion last year.

''2008 will be the year we break all our records in terms of both profit and sales,'' M.L. Chandchutha said of full-year results due for release on Nov 28.

He did not give a specific forecast, but 11 analysts polled by Reuters Estimates expect TTA to post a 57% rise in 2008 net profit to 7.8 billion baht, on revenues of 30.2 billion, up 42%.
The company's 10 billion baht in cash and its low debt would help it to weather the financial storm, he said.

To help offset the impact of a slowing world economy, the company planned to look at investments in energy and infrastructure, M.L. Chandchutha said.

TTA had no plans to cut capacity yet, ''but we won't make any investments for at least three to six months'', he said.

TTA shares, down nearly 80% this year after peaking at 56 baht in May, closed yesterday on the Stock Exchange of Thailand at 10.70 baht, up 85 satang, in trade worth 490.93 million baht.

While some companies have taken advantage of the stock slump to buy back their shares, M.L. Chandchutha said he had no such plans.

''Buying back shares hasn't really stopped foreign funds from selling,'' he said.

And it makes one wonder why the Malaysian bulk shippers have chosen to remain silent now.

Noooooooo-vember!!!

I know what you’re thinking.

My first reaction was "WTF!" too. And no, this is not a joke.

This is actually the first image of Robert Pattison (aka Edward Cullen aka Cedric Diggory) playing a young Salvador Dali in the up and coming biopic Little Ashes. The film itself concentrates on the early life and loves of Dali, filmmaker Luis Bunuel and writer Federico García Lorca after they met at university in Madrid. Honestly the movie sounds great and no doubt this role is a step forward for Pattison boosting his reputation as a serious character actor. BUT WTF! The producers and director of Dali must be crazier than Sarah Palin playing Grand Theft Auto to have let this costuming decision through. We’re not asking Pattison to get all Renee Zellweger on us and stuff himself with donuts for three months to play a role but at least try and make it semi-realistic people! Yeah, okay, Dali was known for his avant-garde facial hair but this moustache looks so fake I think I could have done a better job drawing it on in Microsoft paint. That being said, if this is the standard major Hollywood make-up artists have dropped to then what the heck, I’m going to kick start Pattison’s career with my energy legs by suggesting a few roles I think he would be perfect to play now that physical likeness is no longer an issue.

Robert Pattison in . . .
Marilyn Monr-ohhhh
‘From porn star to scantily clad movie star, the life and death of Marilyn Monroe’

Robert Pattison and an all star cast in . . .
Obama-Rama
‘The musical adaptation of Barack Obama’s heart warming campaign to be the first nig- (cough) black President’

Robert Pattison in . . .
The Einstein Factor
‘For Albert, life just didn’t always add up’

Robert Pattison features in . . .
Opps, I did it Again
‘They took away her kids. They took away her success. And now, they’re trying to take away her cigarettes. Britney Spears is back . . .with a vengeance’

Robert Pattison stars in . . .
Lil Kim, Big City
‘The adventures of Kim Jong il’

**Little Ashes is directed by British filmmaker Paul Morrison and will be released in Australia in 2009.

Twilight at the end of the tunnel

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Why hello there! Yes I know you’re all thinking I died due to the fact I haven’t updated my beloved blog in over three weeks but alas - I’m alive. I won’t bore you with an account of how crazy things have been in the recent month but I will say this: there IS a vortex to another dimension behind my fridge and it can be quite time consuming trying to navigate your way back to through the various parallel universes. Moving on…..October has been a month packed full of Twilight news with obsessed fans counting down the days until the film is released on November 21 in the states and December 11 in Australia. Reviews are soon to be flying in left, right and centre so here are the four major Twilight updates that have caught my attention in the past month.

New Mooning
It seems investors are pretty darn certain the Twilight film is going to be a colossal success as they’ve already given the sequel New Moon the green light. This is a pretty ballsy move given current economic turmoil but alas the financing is secured and the early stages of pre-production are underway. Personally, in the series of novels nothing beats the original Twilight book as I love getting to meet the original characters and watching their relationships form. BUT New Moon is brilliant in its own way and many of the events in this book are some of my favourite to happen in the entire Twilight series. As far as scale goes New Moon is bigger, bolder and brighter with more action and adventure. Needless to say the blogging on New Moon starts now.

Trailer Trash
The above headline is a lie, the new Twilight trailer is not trash it’s just I couldn’t think of anything else catchy. Or trashy. Whatever. Like I said, Summit Entertainment posted the final trailer for the film online two weeks ago and already its had a few million hits. Not only is it extended length it features never before seen clips and offers audiences a better look at the beloved Cullen family. You can view it here at: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxjNDE2fMjI

They do the Monster Mash
The official soundtrack to the Twilight film is due to be released in five days and Stephenie Meyer posted the full track listing on her web page last week. Meyer is a mad music buff and Twilight fans will be familiar with some of her favourite bands which she thanks on the acknowledgments page at the start of every novel. She also wrote and directed her first video clip for Jack’s Mannequin in September so there has been a fair amount of anticipation amongst fans as to who and what will be on the soundtrack. I’ve already downloaded majority of the songs to spare myself the pack of tweens I will no doubt have to wrestle in a Sony store to purchase the soundtrack. From first listen I’m quite impressed with the tracks selected and I think they fit the dark, dramatic tone of the film perfectly. I’m keen to see how the songs are utilised throughout the movie AND desperate to hear Carter Burwell’s version of Bella’s Lullaby. Here is the track listing:
1. Muse — Supermassive Black Hole
2. Paramore — Decode
3. The Black Ghosts — Full Moon
4. Linkin Park — Leave Out All The Rest
5. MuteMath — Spotlight (Twilight Mix)
6. Perry Farrell — Go All The Way (Into The Twilight)
7. Collective Soul — Tremble For My Beloved
8. Paramore — I Caught Myself
9. Blue Foundation — Eyes On Fire
10. Rob Pattinson — Never Think
11. Iron & Wine — Flightless Bird, American Mouth
12. Carter Burwell — Bella's Lullaby

Picture perrrrrrfect
To wrap up my Twilight rant there’s nothing better than treating your eyes to the latest batch of images from the film. These were posted online today at EW Entertainment and include photos from some of the key scenes in the movie. Needless to say these shots made me more excited than Helen Clarke in an all girls school! Enjoy.

How Much For The Wall Street Rescue??

Here's an excellent article posted on Forbes. ( Source: here )

Calculating The Cost Of Wall Street's Rescue

Consider the numbers: $29 billion for the Bear Stearns mess; $700 billion to buy spoiled assets; $200 billion to buy stock in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; an $85 billion loan to AIG insurance; another $37.8 billion for AIG; and $250 billion for bank stocks. Hundreds of billions in guarantees to back up money market funds and to guarantee bank deposits. And who knows what expenses are still to come.

All this financial rescue spending recalls the quote attributed to the late Sen. Everett Dirksen: "A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you're talking real money."

Today, substitute trillion.

How will the U.S. pay for it all? Answer: by borrowing--raising worries about how the country's ballooning annual budget deficits and aggregating debt will affect the economy and financial markets. Some guidelines, such as interest rates and the ratio of debt and deficits to gross domestic product, suggest the new debt will be digested easily. But some experts think those guidelines are misleading, warning that obligations are piling up like tinder on a forest floor.

"This kind of accounting that the government does--if they did it in the private sector, they would go to jail," says Kent Smetters, a professor of insurance and risk management at Wharton.

Like many experts, Smetters is not as concerned about the current deficit and debt as about the long-term obligations that include monumental sums for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid as baby boomers age. "The problems that we face right now are trivial--they are just an appetizer for the big show," he predicts.

What will the financial rescues cost? A tally can't be figured by simply adding the sums for each response. Many of the figures, such as the $700 billion Troubled Assets Relief Program to buy illiquid mortgage-backed securities from financial firms, are upper limits set by lawmakers or regulators who hope that less will be spent. Some figures overlap. The $250 billion bank investment is to come out of the TARP fund, for example.

And much of the spending is to purchase assets that could eventually be sold, offsetting all or part of the cost and perhaps even turning a profit. That includes mortgage-backed securities and derivatives for TARP, as well as ownership stakes in banks and Fannie ) and Freddie. Some funds, like the money for AIG, are for loans the government expects to be repaid, with interest--unless the borrower defaults. Others are guarantees that will be tapped only in an emergency--the $29 billion for Bear Stearns and hundreds of billions to raise confidence in the safety of money markets and bank savings.

Opening 'Pandora's Box'

Wharton finance professor Richard Marston notes that more taxpayer-financed rescues are likely to come. General Motors and Chrysler, now in merger talks, are said be running out of cash and in line for early access to a federal loan fund. Like the financial giants already helped, might any or all of the Big Three U.S. automakers be considered too big to fail? The California state budget is in the red, and other states may follow.

"I don't think we've seen the end of this," Marston predicts. "It's going to be real expensive next year. ... There's no way the federal government is not going to bail out General Motors and Ford. ... We have opened a Pandora's box."

Though the eventual tally is impossible to pinpoint, some experts suggest the annual deficit--the amount borrowed to make up the differences between spending and revenue--will soar. In an early October television interview, Peter Orszag, director of the Congressional Budget Office, forecast that rescue spending and falling tax revenue from a recession could create a $750 billion deficit in the current fiscal year, up from the $455 billion of the just-ended year. The deficit was about $163 billion in 2007. The Concord Coalition, a non-partisan deficit-fighting organization, says next year's figure could exceed $1 trillion. As it approved rescue packages, Congress last summer and this fall raised the debt ceiling to $11.3 trillion from $9.8 trillion. Currently, the debt stands at just over $10 trillion.

The debt is the build-up of annual deficits, which run in cycles, says Marston. During recessions, tax revenue falls along with economic activity, causing deficits to rise. Deficits are typically gauged as a percentage of the gross domestic product, and economists generally worry when this figure exceeds 3%. In 2007, it was 1.2%; in 2008, it jumped to 3.2%. A trillion dollars would be 7%--or more if the economy shrinks--the highest since the 6% of the 1980s. Before 2008, deficits had fallen for several years because the relatively strong economy lifted tax revenues. In recent years, the deficit has been relatively low by historical standards. It has averaged just over 4% of GDP since World War II. The budget was in surplus from 1998 through 2001.

"Even without the bailouts, we would have had a serious deterioration of the deficit," Marston notes. "We always do at the beginning of a recession. Now you have the bailout. ... The big story in terms of deterioration is the cyclical movements. Tax revenues are just plummeting."

Though the total federal debt stands at about $10 trillion, nearly half is debt one part of government owes another. Economists focus on the "debt held by the public," which is what the government owes to debt holders like Treasury bond owners. That stands at about $5.4 trillion, about 38% of gross domestic product. The percentage has been higher during most of the past 70 years, with the exception being the 1970s. At the end of World War II, the debt exceeded 100% of GDP, and the post-World War II average is around 43%. The low was 24% in 1974. Many developed countries carry much heavier debt loads relative to GDP.

Seen in the context of GDP, deficits and debt have not been terribly alarming in recent years, and even the expected spike in the deficit would appear to leave the debt in manageable territory. But that's not to say these obligations don't matter. "If the ratio is going up over time, we've got a problem," according to Wharton finance professor Marshall E. Blume. "If it's going down over time, it's not as much of a problem."

Debt has to be paid off with interest. The bigger the debt-service bill, the harder it is for government to pay other expenses without raising taxes. In fiscal 2008, interest on the debt cost the government about $234 billion, or 8% of total spending. "It seems to me it is going to restrain what the next president is going to be able to do," Blume calculates. "We may be able to handle it, but it will cost us in other areas."

Moreover, if Treasury sales are soaking up investor dollars, that money is not available for other investments that drive economic growth, such as stocks or corporate bonds. High government debt reduces economic growth. "It's called 'crowding out,' " Blume says. "The government is crowding out the private sector."

A Deficit of Confidence in the Numbers

Smetters thinks the debt-related problems are far worse than government numbers indicate. If the government followed the accounting required of corporations, it would include as a liability the present value of future expenses for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. That would have made the 2006 deficit $2.4 trillion instead of $248 billion. The current debt would be around $68 trillion, not $10 trillion. "The bottom line is that they just don't have forward-looking measures."

Marston and Blume, too, argue that these future costs present an immense problem. Dealing with it will require some combination of raising taxes or cutting benefits--or "monetizing" the problem. Essentially, that means printing money to raise inflation, which should push tax revenues up (although higher inflation also could raise Social Security and Medicare expenses, offsetting the benefit). "With the liquidity that's being pumped into the system, and the loose credit that the Treasury and Fed are trying to create, down the line we are going to have to worry about inflation," Marston suggests.

Nearly all economists agree entitlements are a looming threat, according to Marston. "It doesn't matter what the political persuasion is. We are much more worried about the entitlement issue than we are about the cyclical deficit and interest rates."

But if the problem is so serious, why are the financial markets not signaling alarms by raising interest rates? In the traditional view, growing deficits and debt work to drive interest rates upward, because the government, like a desperate gambler turning to a loan shark, must offer higher yields to attract lenders--the investors who buy Treasury bonds. But Treasury yields are not rising substantially. "We're paying no penalty at all for the increase in government spending," Marston notes, arguing that other factors are offsetting the interest-heightening influence of debt.

He and Blume point to the global savings glut--a mountain of money seeking investments and turning to U.S. Treasuries, considered among the safest holdings in the world. This high demand offsets the growing supply of Treasuries, which include bills, notes and bonds, allowing the government to sell them with low yields. The 30-year Treasury bonds yield a paltry 4.2%

The worldwide "flight to safety" is underscored by the dollar's recent rise against the euro, which has been a strong competitor to the U.S. currency in recent years, Marston observes. The dollar's rise is caused by heavy demand for Treasuries. "The Treasury, in this crisis, is being viewed as the safest harbor in the world. And that is an eye-opener. I wouldn't have predicted that--particularly against the euro."

According to Smetters, interest rates should not be seen as the canary in the coal mine, an infallible early warning system. "The common belief that capital markets cannot fail is precisely the reason why they can," Smetters wrote in a 2007 article in Financial Analysts Journal, "Do the Markets Care about the $2.4 Trillion U.S. Deficit?" Smetters and his co-author, Jagadeesh Gokhale, a Cato Institute fellow, wrote that "the United States has never faced anything close to the unbalanced balance sheet it now confronts--not even during World War II." They conclude that fixed-income investors "reveal enormous myopia about the implications of the financial problems facing the federal government."

Herd instincts cause these investors to reinforce one another's views that nothing is wrong because the low interest rates say so, he and Gokhale wrote. Their article was written before the current financial meltdown--largely caused by the financial markets' failure to identify rising risks by pushing interest rates up. Many experts' faith in the predictive value of interest rates has been shaken over the past two years. Deficits and debt do matter--if not today, someday, Smetters says.

To economists, the most frightening fact is that the enormous cost of today's financial rescues is just a drop in the bucket.

Shipping Giant Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) Warns of Losses!

Amidst the plunging global shipping rates (see Baltic Dry Index Closes At 982 And Britannia Holdings Faces Loans Defaults!! and also note the links within), Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) warns that it will likely see operating loss in the current quarter.

Posted on Business Times: NOL warns of losses as choppy seas loom

NOL warns of losses as choppy seas loom

Q3 net profit falls 82% - but the real trouble starts now

By VINCENT WEE

(SINGAPORE) The global shipping industry is headed for a situation 'never seen before' and the US$35 million profit that Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) still managed to turn in for the third quarter will likely turn into an operating loss in the current quarter, group president and CEO Ron Widdows warned yesterday.

Net profit fell 82 per cent from US$191 million in the previous corresponding quarter while revenue rose 16 per cent to US$2.35 billion from US$2.03 billion previously.

'The group continued to generate a profit in the third quarter despite the deterioration of conditions in the container shipping market,' said Mr Widdows. 'Reduced demand in key trade lanes, combined with cost increases and worsening global economic conditions have adversely impacted our profit performance in the third quarter,' he added.

Mr Widdows warned that more trouble lay ahead. 'Clearly, the pace of trade flows are going to diminish in the not too distant future and some of that has found its way into third-quarter results but it will only be towards the later part of this year and earlier into next year that you will really see the slowdown,' he said.

For the third quarter, NOL's container shipping business APL saw a 10 per cent rise in volumes to 622,000 forty foot-equivalent units (FEUs) and average revenue per FEU rose 8 per cent to US$3,127. Total revenue rose 22 per cent to US$2.04 billion but lower core freight rates in the Asia-Europe trade took a bite out of profit, with Ebit (earnings before interest and taxation) falling 95 per cent to US$9 million.

Core Asia-Europe headhaul freight rates (excluding bunker adjustment factors) came under severe downward pressure on softer demand and ahead of expected capacity overhang in 2009/2010, NOL said.

This trade will likely see negative volume growth on a full-year basis and it is reasonable to assume that it will turn further negative next year, Mr Widdows said.

Increasingly, the long-leg Intra-Asia trades have also been affected, as they are hit by capacity cascaded from other trades, principally Asia-Europe.

Average headhaul utilisation had already started to come down to 90 per cent in the third quarter from 99 per cent previously.

Significantly, headhaul volumes in APL's key TransPacific trade contracted during the quarter and this may be compounded by the global financial crisis and economic slowdown, NOL said. In addition, Japan's No 2 line Mitsui OSK Lines announced that it would resign from the Transpacific Stabilization Agreement.

'We are acting quickly and decisively to trim capacity and reconfigure our service networks, adjusting port calls and service loops and withdrawing a number of vessels from service. These actions will reduce our costs and better align APL's service networks to the lower demand levels currently being experienced,' said Mr Widdows.

He said APL's capacity in the Asia-Europe trade would be reduced by close to 25 per cent, with around 20 per cent of the company's TransPacific tonnage also to be removed from service.

Key changes are also underway in the Intra-Asia trades, he added. Together with APL's alliance partners, this translates into about 40 ships that will be taken out of service, Mr Widdows said.

APL Logistics delivered a 42 per cent increase in Ebit to US$17 million for the third quarter, although logistics revenues registered a slight one per cent decline to US$315 million. The terminals business saw Ebit rise 5 per cent to US$23 million on one per cent increase in revenue to US$146 million.
NOL shares closed 7 cents higher at $1.17 yesterday.

Apollo Food's'Investments' In The Share Market

I had posted on local company dabbling in the share markets recently and as posted in the following posting, Listed Companies Investments: Yung Kong Galvanised Steel , I made the following remarks.

I have always felt uneasy seeing our local listed companies dabbling with their excess money. Sometimes they invest in the share market and sometimes they just invest! And one of the most disturbing issue is that there is ZERO transparency!

Today, I came across the following announcement from Apollo Food Holdings. Now I would applaud Apollo Food Holdings for being transparent.

See APOLLO FOOD HOLDINGS BERHAD ("APOLLO" or "the Company") - Dealing in quoted shares (Do click on the excel file attached!!! )

However, let me stress again, I am uneasy with Apollo Food's involvement in the share market.

Excess money should be return to the shareholders and I do not think it's right that this company should be dabbling in the stock market.

About Hedge Funds And Meltdown In Euroland!

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

A couple of interesting postings on UK Telegraph.

GLG chief Emmanuel Roman warns thousands of hedge funds on brink of failure

24th October 2008

Emmanuel Roman, of GLG Partners, said 25pc-30pc of the world’s 8,000 hedge funds would disappear "in a Darwinian process", either going bust or deciding meagre profits are not worth their efforts.

"This will go down in the history books as one of the greatest fiascos of banking in 100 years," said Mr Roman, who with Noam Gottesman, co-runs GLG, a former division of Lehman Brothers Holdings with assets of $24bn (£14.8bn). "There need to be some scapegoats, and the regulators are going to go hunt people. That will be good in the long run."

His views were echoed by Professor Nouriel Roubini, a former US Treasury and presidential adviser known for his accurate prediction of financial crises, who estimated that up to 500 hedge funds would fail within months.

Both men were speaking at the same hedge fund conference in London yesterday, and Prof Roubini said he would not be surprised if the US and other countries soon had to close their stock markets for more than a week to halt descent into "sheer panic".

The economist warned that the world is heading for a protracted recession that will end the US’s financial dominance.

"It’s the beginning of the decline of the US financial empire. The Great Depression ended in a massive war. I hope that’s not going to happen but it’s pretty ugly now," Prof Roubini said.

He added that turmoil over world trade, currency markets and debt is likely to cause geopolitical tensions between the Western world and emerging superpowers such as Russia, China and "a bunch of unstable oil states".

The conference saw analysts, economists and hedge fund managers discussing the possibility that global recession could now last two years on fears that government bail-outs and nationalisations have failed to stop the markets slumping.

"We’re now paying the price for the biggest asset and credit bubble in history," Prof Roubini said, advising investors to stay clear of risky assets and keep money in cash. "The bail-outs have not worked because the markets are no longer rallying, and the policy-makers have run out of options."

The global financial meltdown accelerated this month, with the UK and US governments being forced to take stakes in some of the world’s biggest banks. Stock markets around the world have fallen sharply this month as investors’ concern switches to the impact on the wider economy.

"It’s like we’re walking blind in a minefield," said Prof Roubini. "Every situation has become risky and no one can trust each other. The banks are too big to be allowed to fail, but they’re also too big to save."

Research from Hedge Fund Intelligence (HFI) shows that despite one of the worst months on record for credit funds, US hedge funds alone still have $1.7trillion (£1trillion) in assets.

Europe on the brink of currency crisis meltdown

26th October 2008

The financial crisis spreading like wildfire across the former Soviet bloc threatens to set off a second and more dangerous banking crisis in Western Europe, tipping the whole Continent into a fully-fledged economic slump.

Currency pegs are being tested to destruction on the fringes of Europe’s monetary union in a traumatic upheaval that recalls the collapse of the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992.

“This is the biggest currency crisis the world has ever seen,” said Neil Mellor, a strategist at Bank of New York Mellon.

Experts fear the mayhem may soon trigger a chain reaction within the eurozone itself. The risk is a surge in capital flight from Austria – the country, as it happens, that set off the global banking collapse of May 1931 when Credit-Anstalt went down – and from a string of Club Med countries that rely on foreign funding to cover huge current account deficits.

The latest data from the Bank for International Settlements shows that Western European banks hold almost all the exposure to the emerging market bubble, now busting with spectacular effect.

They account for three-quarters of the total $4.7 trillion £2.96 trillion) in cross-border bank loans to Eastern Europe, Latin America and emerging Asia extended during the global credit boom – a sum that vastly exceeds the scale of both the US sub-prime and Alt-A debacles.

Europe has already had its first foretaste of what this may mean. Iceland’s demise has left them nursing likely losses of $74bn (£47bn). The Germans have lost $22bn.

Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, says the emerging market crash is a vastly underestimated risk. It threatens to become “the second epicentre of the global financial crisis”, this time unfolding in Europe rather than America.

Austria’s bank exposure to emerging markets is equal to 85pc of GDP – with a heavy concentration in Hungary, Ukraine, and Serbia – all now queuing up (with Belarus) for rescue packages from the International Monetary Fund.

Exposure is 50pc of GDP for Switzerland, 25pc for Sweden, 24pc for the UK, and 23pc for Spain. The US figure is just 4pc. America is the staid old lady in this drama.

Amazingly, Spanish banks alone have lent $316bn to Latin America, almost twice the lending by all US banks combined ($172bn) to what was once the US backyard. Hence the growing doubts about the health of Spain’s financial system – already under stress from its own property crash – as Argentina spirals towards another default, and Brazil’s currency, bonds and stocks all go into freefall.

Broadly speaking, the US and Japan sat out the emerging market credit boom. The lending spree has been a European play – often using dollar balance sheets, adding another ugly twist as global “deleveraging” causes the dollar to rocket. Nowhere has this been more extreme than in the ex-Soviet bloc.

The region has borrowed $1.6 trillion in dollars, euros, and Swiss francs. A few dare-devil homeowners in Hungary and Latvia took out mortgages in Japanese yen. They have just suffered a 40pc rise in their debt since July. Nobody warned them what happens when the Japanese carry trade goes into brutal reverse, as it does when the cycle turns.

The IMF’s experts drafted a report two years ago – Asia 1996 and Eastern Europe 2006 – Déjà vu all over again? – warning that the region exhibited the most dangerous excesses in the world.

Inexplicably, the text was never published, though underground copies circulated. Little was done to cool credit growth, or to halt the fatal reliance on foreign capital. Last week, the silent authors had their moment of vindication as Eastern Europe went haywire.

Hungary stunned the markets by raising rates 3pc to 11.5pc in a last-ditch attempt to defend the forint’s currency peg in the ERM.

It is just blood in the water for hedge funds sharks, eyeing a long line of currency kills. “The economy is not strong enough to take it, so you know it is unsustainable,” said Simon Derrick, currency strategist at the Bank of New York Mellon.

Romania raised its overnight lending to 900pc to stem capital flight, recalling the near-crazed gestures by Scandinavia’s central banks in the final days of the 1992 ERM crisis – political moves that turned the Nordic banking crisis into a disaster.

Russia too is in the eye of the storm, despite its energy wealth – or because of it. The cost of insuring Russian sovereign debt through credit default swaps (CDS) surged to 1,200 basis points last week, higher than Iceland’s debt before Götterdammerung struck Reykjavik.

The markets no longer believe that the spending structure of the Russian state is viable as oil threatens to plunge below $60 a barrel. The foreign debt of the oligarchs ($530bn) has surpassed the country’s foreign reserves. Some $47bn has to be repaid over the next two months.

Traders are paying close attention as contagion moves from the periphery of the eurozone into the core. They are tracking the yield spreads between Italian and German 10-year bonds, the stress barometer of monetary union.

The spreads reached a post-EMU high of 93 last week. Nobody knows where the snapping point is, but anything above 100 would be viewed as a red alarm. The market took careful note on Friday that Portugal’s biggest banks, Millenium, BPI, and Banco Espirito Santo are preparing to take up the state’s emergency credit guarantees.

Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas, says there is an imminent danger that East Europe’s currency pegs will be smashed unless the EU authorities wake up to the full gravity of the threat, and that in turn will trigger a dangerous crisis for EMU itself.

“The system is paralysed, and it is starting to look like Black Wednesday in 1992. I’m afraid this is going to have a very deflationary effect on the economy of Western Europe. It is almost guaranteed that euroland money supply is about to implode,” he said.

A grain of comfort for British readers: UK banks have almost no exposure to the ex-Communist bloc, except in Poland – one of the less vulnerable states.

The threat to Britain lies in emerging Asia, where banks have lent $329bn, almost as much as the Americans and Japanese combined. Whether you realise it or not, your pension fund is sunk in Vietnamese bonds and loans to Indian steel magnates. Didn’t they tell you?

Baltic Dry Index Closes At 982 And Britannia Holdings Faces Loans Defaults!!

This was very much expected given the dramatic plunge in the index in recent weeks.

Again note the warnings of the possibility of shipping companies failing and the problems with Britannia Bulk Holdings in the following news report on Bloomberg.

Baltic Dry Index Drops Below 1,000 for First Time in Six Years

By Alistair Holloway

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The Baltic Dry Index, the benchmark for commodity shipping costs, fell below 1,000 for the first time in six years as the lack of credit curbed global trade and shipowners threatened to shun orders.

The index, watched by banks including UBS AG as an economic indicator, fell 66 points, or 6.3 percent, to 982 points, the lowest since Aug. 8, 2002. The gauge has dropped 89 percent this year, driving down the combined market capitalization of the 12- company Bloomberg Dry Ships Index, led by Athens-based Diana Shipping Inc., to $5.5 billion from $32 billion a year ago.

``You are getting very, very close to the cost of just crewing and running a ship,'' Richard Haines, a senior director at London-based shipbroker Simpson, Spence & Young Ltd., said in an interview today. ``It can't go much lower than this without owners deciding they don't want their ships employed.''

The International Monetary Fund predicts the world's advanced economies will next year grow at the slowest pace since 1982. The Bank of England today estimated losses on asset-backed debt, corporate bonds and other securities in the U.K., U.S. and Europe had more than doubled since April to about $2.8 trillion.

Zodiac Maritime Agencies Ltd., the shipping line managed by Israel's billionaire Ofer family, said this month it may idle 20 capesize ships, which typically haul coal and iron ore. That's about 5 percent of the fleet operating in the spot market.

Shipowners are also slowing down vessels to cut fuel costs. The average capesize is sailing at 8.54 knots, down from 10.33 knots in July. Capesizes are attracting rates of $7,340 a day, close to daily operating expenses of about $6,000, according to Henrik With, a shipping analyst at DnB NOR Markets ASA in Oslo. Daily rates for smaller panamaxes fell 8.1 percent to $6,413.

Failing Shippers

Fearnley Fonds ASA, an investment bank specialized in shipping, energy and oil services, expects a ``significant'' number of commodity shippers to fail within two years.

Britannia Bulk Holdings Inc. has ``severe'' financial difficulties and a ``very high risk'' of being in default on a $170 million loan, the London-based commodities shipping line said in a statement distributed by Market Wire today.

Industrial Carriers Inc., a Ukrainian operator of about 55 vessels, filed for bankruptcy this month.

The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, fell 4 basis points today to 3.47 percent for three-month loans, the British Bankers' Association said. It was the 12th straight drop.

The three-month Libor for dollars remains 197 basis points above the Federal Reserve's target rate for overnight loans of 1.5 percent, up from 81 basis points about three months ago. At the start of the year, the spread was 43 basis points.

Awaiting Recovery

Credit markets began seizing up after BNP Paribas SA halted withdrawals on three funds in August 2007. They froze after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed on Sept. 15.

Shipping lines also have to contend with slowing growth in demand for most commodities. The S&P GSCI index of 24 raw materials has dropped 31 percent this month, its worst performance since at least 1970. Any turnaround for shipping markets may not come this year, according to Stuart Rae, joint managing director at M2M Management Ltd. in London.

``Towards the early part of next year I think we will have more liquidity and cash in the market, and more trading being done and the market picking itself up from the floor,'' Rae said in an interview today.

OAO Severstal, Russia's largest steelmaker, and other producers are cutting output, sapping demand for iron ore and coking coal. The two commodities will account for about a third of the 3.2 billion metric tons of dry bulk goods shipped this year, according to Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd.

See also article on Forbes: The Waves Rule Britannia

A falling tide sinks all ships. With global economic growth slowing and international finance grinding to a halt, no industry has been harder hit than the dry-bulk shipping business. As business evaporates, shipping companies are anchoring their boats and hoping to ride out the financial storm.

The question is, which ones will have strong enough balance sheets to do so.

On Tuesday we learned that Britannia Bulk Holdings is not one of those tough-as-nails companies. The dry-bulk shipping outfit, which had its initial public offering in June at $15.00 per share, announced on Tuesday that it would post a whopping third-quarter loss and that it is considering alternatives including liquidation or bankruptcy protection. Investors weren’t understanding. Britannia’s shares plummeted 86.8%, or $1.65, to 25 cents.

Britannia said that there was a “very high risk” of default for its loan facility with Lloyds TSB Bank and Nordea Bank Denmark. The company is in discussions with lenders but said there can “be no assurance that a resolution of the issues surrounding the facility will be reached.”

“The company is considering its alternatives if it is unable to reach an accommodation with the lenders, including liquidation or protection under applicable bankruptcy or insolvency laws,” the company said.

Britannia, which transports good in and out of the Baltic region and has 13 dry bulk vessels, blamed its third-quarter loss on the substantial drop in shipping demand and a related decline in chartering rates. Dry-bulk rates on Capesize vessels -- those ships so large that they can't fit in canals -- sank 8.7%, to $7,340 on Tuesday, down from $8,042 on Monday and from $179,887 in the prior year.

When Britannia arrived on the market in June it looked as if shipping rates could go nowhere but up. Another blow to the company is that it paid more to retain shipping vessels than it received for chartering them to customers. Add to that a misplaced bet on oil prices: fearing they would rise, Britannia hedged at prices substantially above the current level, and now it doesn't need all that much fuel.

That Britannia's future is dim seems a foregone conclusion. The big question is: who is next? (See “ High and Dry In Dry Bulk.”).

Investors seem to have lost faith in DryShips and Navios Maritime Holdings since those two stocks sank significantly in late trading on Tuesday, both falling around 7.0% despite a rally in the overall market.

Yet if you have a strong stomach, a long-term view, and any reason to believe that the global economy will rebound, now’s the time to buy.

Meanwhile, the Baltic Dry Index, which measures dry bulk shipping rates on 40 routes across the world, tumbled 6.3%, to 982 on Tuesday--its 17th straight daily decline, down from 1048 on Monday, according to TradeTheNews.com. (See “ Shipping Stocks Sink.”) . This is the first time the index sank below 1,000 since August 2002.

Other recent postings made on the Baltic Dry Index:

Marc Faber: Not Much Incentive To Hold Equities!

Monday, October 27, 2008

Published on CNBC.

The wave of stock selloffs sweeping world markets may be partially caused by the fact that many governments increased guarantees for bank deposits, making them a much safer investment, Marc Faber, author of the "Gloom, Doom and Boom Report," told CNBC Monday.

"Now that deposits are guaranteed, basically I as an investor have no incentive to hold equities so I sell them and put my money in bank deposits," Faber told "Squawk Box Europe" by telephone.

The other measures taken by various governments to try and prop up ailing markets have had the opposite effect, he added.

"The interventions, they actually have increased volatility. It’s impossible to forecast market movements when you have interventions," Faber said.

The next stage of the crisis may be that companies may have to adjust their book value as it happened during the bear markets of the 70s and 80s, when book value was overstated.

"If the global economy slows down by as much as I think it will… then a lot of book values will have to be adjusted downward quite substantially," he said.

And central banks cutting rates based on the assumption that the downturn will dampen inflationary effects will have another headache when the worst of the crisis is over, Faber warned.

"I think first we’ll have a bout of deflation that will actually be quite substantial… but then the budget deficits will go through the roof and the Fed will print even more money … and then later on we'll have very high inflation," he said.

Source: Governments May Have Caused Stocks Selloff: Dr. Doom

Crisis Hit Arab Nations, Sending Stocks Into Tailspin

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Posted on VoiceOfAmerica: Stock Markets Across Middle East Fall Again

Stock markets in the Gulf and across much of the Middle East experienced another day of dramatic drops Sunday, amid a backdrop of falling oil prices, despite OPEC's decision to cut production. Stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region have opened slightly lower Monday, amid indications governments will take additional measures to prop-up the global financial system. Edward Yeranian reports for VOA from Cairo.

Stock markets in Abu Dhabi and Dubai lost between four and five percent, Oman and Qatar lost between eight and nine percent, and the Egyptian stock exchange dropped more than six percent.

Mohammed Burhan, the executive editor of CNBC al Arabiya network, based in Dubai, said in a telephone interview, he thinks that Gulf markets are reflecting the global economic crisis.

He says, whatever affects global markets affects Gulf Arab markets, as well. He says, "the crisis in the Gulf began a bit ahead of the global crisis, when foreign investment funds began to pull out of the local market," and this affected stock prices.

The Arab daily Asharqalawsat reports that Gulf Finance Ministers and Central Bank chiefs held a closed door meeting Saturday in the wake of investor fears.

In Kuwait, the Central Bank intervened Sunday to halt trading in one of the country's largest banks, after it incurred major losses in currency and stock trades.

A top Gulf economic expert, Wadah el Taha, told Al Arabiya Television that he thinks much of the crisis is the result of widespread investor panic, and that some steps have already been taken, like the insuring of bank deposits in the United Arab Emirates, and the pumping of more liquidity into the system:

He says it is critically important to restore confidence and take steps to support the banking system.

Posted on ArabNews.Com: Kuwait guarantees deposits

JEDDAH: Kuwait moved to prop up one of its banks yesterday as the global financial crisis spread to the Gulf, sending stocks into a tailspin.

The Kuwaiti central bank was forced to step in to support Gulf Bank, which was hit by losses from trading in currency derivatives after the dollar rose, prompting the government to announce it would guarantee local bank deposits.

Gulf Bank, Kuwait’s fifth-largest bank by market value, had suffered two straight quarters of falling profit due to bad debt and the impact of weak markets on its investment portfolio.

Yesterday, the central bank halted trading in Gulf Bank’s shares and appointed a supervisor to oversee its treasury, foreign exchange and financial markets trading operations. The central bank said trading in Gulf Bank stocks would remain suspended until the probe was completed.

Gulf Bank ran into trouble after some of its clients refused to cover their losses from currency derivatives trades, leaving the bank to foot the costs until a deal was reached.

Chief Executive of the National Bank of Kuwait, the country’s biggest bank by assets, Ibrahim Dabdoub put the losses at 150 million to 200 million dinars, but Gulf Bank General Manager Fawzy Al-Thunayan dismissed the comments as too early.

“We don’t know yet. Dabdoub can say what he wants,” Al-Thunayan said, speaking in front of the bank’s headquarters where a crowd gathered, adding that deposits were safe. He said the full extent of losses would not be known until today, when the bank closes its currency positions abroad.

Kuwaiti traders staged another walkout yesterday and protested outside the stock market. The traders, who deserted the stock market on Thursday, the business week’s final day, left the trading chamber again after the index dived more than 300 points a few minutes after the opening.

About 30 of the traders marched to the nearby Council of Ministers building where the Cabinet was holding an emergency session to discuss a bill to guarantee bank deposits.

“We want the government to intervene to rescue the bourse and traders. We want the government to buy stocks. This month, I have already lost half of my investments in the bourse,” one of the protesters, Hussein Tubayekh, said.

The Kuwaiti government also set up a special task force yesterday headed by the central bank governor to deal with the impact of the financial crisis.

The actions spooked investors. Gulf markets tumbled to multi-month lows yesterday. The Kuwait Stock Exchange Index shed 3.5 percent to finish at 10,114.30 points, its lowest level since April 2007.

The Dubai Financial Market Index closed down 4.75 percent at 3,102.65 points.

The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange dived 4 percent with the key real estate sector down 6.5 percent and banking 5.5 percent.

The Doha Securities Market dived a massive 8.93 percent to end the day below the 7,000-point mark at 6,892.95 points. The tiny Muscat Securities Market dropped 8.3 percent to 6,506.03 points, while the Bahrain Stock Exchange lost 3.7 percent.

Saudi Arabia’s index slipped 1.66 percent after an 8.7 percent slide on Saturday.

The Tadawul All-Share Index (TASI) closed 93.10 points down at 5,531.57. The stock market turnover was over SR5.56 billion compared to over SR4 billion on Saturday.

“The market is looking for confidence-building measures. They shouldn’t take actions that damage another country’s deposit base,” said John Sfakianakis, chief economist at SABB bank, referring to Kuwaiti central bank’s action. “As they face this global uncertainty, the central banks need to have a uniform position.”

Adding to Kuwait’s headaches, a Parliament member said he would submit a request to question the country’s prime minister partly over his handling of the financial crisis.

In the past, such requests have led to ministerial resignations and brought down the government.

See also article on CNN: Crisis moves to Gulf Arab nations

Here is how Gulf Bank is doing.

1 year..

5 year..

Here is how Kuwait stock has done..

1 year..

5 year..

Here is how Saudi Arabia Stock Exchange (Tadawul) has done..

1 year..

5 year..

Regarding KNM's Sell Down!

Blogged the other day. KNM Comments About BTimes Article

Got one interesting set of comments.

Naruto said...
THE SHARES WERE SOLD BY FINANCIER WHICH IS NOW RESOLVED. How was this resolved? By company Share Buybacks? By Mr Lee's own purchase? Or by Financier's repurchase? And the announcement did not disclose the actual problem of this financier, whether the disposal is purely margin call, financier liquidation due to credit crisis or actual share disposal by shareholder.

Yes, this is also why I am lost here.

Mr. Lee has gone massive length in attempting to made a point over the size of EPF's shareholding stake and the PE yardstick but as pointed out by Naruto..

1. What about the massive 'disposal of shares sold down by financer' on Inter Merger Sdn Bhd the other day?

2. How's this resolved?

3. Why did the sell down happened?

4. And that share buyback.. the timing of the buybacks and the selldown simply arouses suspicion, yes?

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Friday, October 31, 2008

What ever happened to Keira Knightley?

Massive Warnings From Shippers On Their Drying Baltic Dry Index

Noooooooo-vember!!!

Twilight at the end of the tunnel

Thursday, October 30, 2008

How Much For The Wall Street Rescue??

Shipping Giant Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) Warns of Losses!

Apollo Food's'Investments' In The Share Market

About Hedge Funds And Meltdown In Euroland!

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Baltic Dry Index Closes At 982 And Britannia Holdings Faces Loans Defaults!!

Marc Faber: Not Much Incentive To Hold Equities!

Monday, October 27, 2008

Crisis Hit Arab Nations, Sending Stocks Into Tailspin

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Regarding KNM's Sell Down!