Movie Mazzupial's Oscar predictions

With the hysteria of the Golden Globes starting to die down, the attention now turns to the Ben Hur of Hollywood awards ceremonies - the Oscars. On Wednesday, The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will announce this year's nominees and, if the combined results of the Globes and Critics Choice Awards are anything to go by, The Social Network will lead the charge. It will most definitely get nominations across the board in the best film, best director, best original screenplay, and best actor/supporting actor categories. But history has shown us several best picture favourites have fallen on their own sword in past Oscars upsets.

Few Oscarphiles will forget the shocking, and still debated, win by Shakespeare In Love which took out the top honours over hot favourite and Golden Globe winner Saving Private Ryan in 1999. Brokeback Mountain was also a surprise loser when Crash caused a major upset by snagging the Oscar in 2006, despite a best picture Golden Globe and several other wins just weeks earlier. But historically it's Citizen Kane's best picture loss to the little-seen mining film How Green Was My Valley that proves The Social Network isn't as much of a sure thing as punters would have us believe.

Which is good news for Inception and The Fighter - arguably the Facebook film's two biggest competitors. Christopher Nolan hasn't been an Academy favourite in the past, with The Dark Knight being completely overlooked for best picture and best director in 2009 and Memento failing to win the best original screenplay award it so deserved in 2001. But considering the public outcry surrounding The Dark Knight's exclusion and the Academy being forced to open up the best picture category to ten nominees as a result last year, they might try and redeem themselves by awarding Inception.Boxing films have proved to be big winners at the Oscars, which could both work for and against The Fighter. Academy voters are less likely to be confronted by the conceptually challenging themes, like they will with Inception, and The Fighter is a superbly acted underdog tale that is benefited by the indie leanings of director David O.Russell. But where Rocky and Million Dollar Baby have concurred, boxing flicks like Raging Bull and The Hurricane have been knocked out, so it could go either way for Mark Wahlberg's passion project.

Other potential best picture nominees are likely to be The King's Speech, Black Swan, 127 Hours, Winter's Bone, Toy Story 3 and True Grit, with left-field entries coming from Blue Valentine, The Town and The Kids Are All Right. Best director nominees are likely to reflect the Globes, with David Fincher, David O.Russell, Christopher Nolan, Tom Hooper and Darren Aronofsky to battle it out, with Danny Boyle and Ben Affleck outside chances. Weighing in on the Oscar nominations is veteran British director Stephen Frears (The Queen, Dangerous Liaisons). As a two-time best director Academy Award nominee Frears knows all about the selection process and said although he's unsure of a potential best director winner, his bet is on a fellow Brit for best actor.
“Surely Colin (Firth) will win,'' he said.
“That's what everyone seems to think.
“I'm not really too good at guessing those sorts of things.''Firth is certainly the favourite for the career Oscar and his superb turn in The King's Speech is likely to be unshakable. But two-time Oscar nominee M. Night Shyamalan (The Sixth Sense, Signs) thinks The Social Network's Jesse Eisenberg is in with a shot.
"With Jesse . . .I always look to what are the performances that can never be duplicated by any other actor,'' he said.
“He certainly gave one of those performances.
“He (Mark Zuckerberg) is a one of a kind human being and he (Eisenberg) put that on screen.
“He brought humanity to a very difficult character.''

Hollywood filmmaker Brett Ratner (Rush Hour, X-Men: The Last Stand) has been all too happy to name his front-runners, raving about indie film Blue Valentine on Twitter last week. Ratner tweeted Ryan Gosling and Michelle Williams would be his choices for best actor and best actress in what he called a “great film.'' Oscar winner Ben Affleck is keeping his bromance alive by picking best friend Matt Damon's film True Grit as a best picture potential.
“I may be a little biased because of Matt (Damon), but I think True Grit is magnificent,'' he said.

Althought most of you will be lying in a pool of your own vomit while friends draw the southern cross on your back with a Sharpie come Australia Day, I'll be sure to post the full list of nominees next Wednesday because that's just the kind of girl I am. I will also be at work, which may or may not have everything to do with it.