Uchi: Am I Losing My Bashing Touch?

I received this set of comments which I thought I would like to highlight.

• SS has left a new comment on your post "More Questions China's Recovery":
  
  moomoo,
  
  No more "hentam" on Uchi ??? now already RM1.39 u know ?

Hmm.. 'hentam'? Bashing is it? :)

Let's look back in history.

I started writing about Uchi back in February 2006.

1. Monday, February 27, 2006 ROI on Uchi
2. Monday, February 27, 2006 ROI on Uchi: Part II
3. Tuesday, February 28, 2006 ROI on Uchi: Part III - the ESOS issue
4. Thursday, May 04, 2006 My Earnings has been Shrunk!

Those series of postings were based on ROI or as I define it as a review of investment. The assumption made that if I owned shares in Uchi, and since Uchi had been a one gem of an investment, what would I do? Would I hold it forever and ever in spite of the insane ESOS issue, which could ultimately shrink the company's earnings per share.

How? Did I 'hentam' Uchi or was I highlighting the danger in the potential earnings dilution caused by the ESOS?

Highlighting a concern equates to bashing?

On Feb 27th 2006, Uchi closed at 3.28. KLCI then was 928.

More than one year later, I wrote the following postings.

1. Saturday, September 22, 2007 Review Of Uchi Again
2. Monday, September 24, 2007 Uchi and its ESOS

That 24th September posting was interesting.

• SS said...
  If you know Uchi close enuf, you will know there is not many "VIP employees" inside Uchi that really need motivation to work. The main activities is coming from Uchi Optoelectrinics (M) Sdn. Bhd. This is a very small scale organization we are talking about here, don't tell me Ted Kao & Edward Kao need those ESOS for motivation, if you don't know who is Ted & Edward ? Better avoid this counter.

Hmm.. looks like SS made a bigger 'hentam'. LOL!

Anyway on 24th Sept 2007, Uchi last traded at 2.98. (on the 22nd Sep 2007, blog posting, Uchi was trading around 3.02.) while the KLCI was trading at 1317!!!

One can see the underperformance of Uchi versus KLCI from 27 Feb 2006 to 24 Sep 2007 in the chart below. Chart provided by yahoo finance.

Ok what happen next is more important.

The Malaysian market was in one grand of a bull run, which peaked around mid Jan 2008.

Let's see how Uchi performed from 27nd Feb 2006 to 31st Jan 2008.

And if my data is not flawed, to be even more accurate Uchi last traded at 2.07 on 31st Jan 2008.

As can see from the day I started highlighting the issue with the ESOS in Uchi back in Feb 2007, Uchi had tumbled from 3.00+ to 2.00. And this happened during a time when there was a massive bull run in the KLCI.

So how?

Now do I feel the urge to gloat on this issue? No. Frankly I do not see the reason why I should.

On Wednesday, February 25, 2009, I started reviewing on Uchi again. Yet Another Update On Uchi It was a brief review. I highlighted the decline in earnings or rather the spectacular earnings growth for Uchi had clearly ended. ( Chart of Uchi then: pix )

Uchi was trading as low as 75 sen!

The next day, I wrote Would You Buy Uchi For Its Dividends?

It was a simple yet extremely interesting investing situation. As said clearly in that posting,

• Based on yesterday's closing price, this proposed Tax Exempt Dividend is certainly interesting.

But the concerns were clearly undeniable. Sales and profits were now declining instead of growing! Cash were depleting too.

And since it was an interesting 'investing' scenario, it attracted a lot of feedback.

1. Wednesday, March 04, 2009 Reply To Would You Buy Uchi For Its Dividends?
2. Thursday, March 05, 2009 Reply To Radzian On Uchi Once More
3. Friday, March 06, 2009 More Feedback On Uchi
4. Monday, March 09, 2009 Last Words On Uchi For Now

In that posting, under the comments, I made the following last remarks. Why? Because it was getting rather tedious and the points made were the very same old points. Anyway, I wrote the following comments in that last posting.

• Radzian,
  
  Oh yes ,I am aware that your assumptions and estimates were based on GDP and exchange rate and this is exactly why we differ.
  
  Let me ask you, have you considered the issue of Uchi's main product and its relevancy under current market environment? Me? I have huge concerns.
  
  Quote: Not many people are honest and generous to share what they earn in their business, so I stick to those who are generous albeit they are falling due to appreciation of exchange rate and recession.
  
  Yes, that's true BUT I will NOT force myself to invest based on this reason alone!
  
  Have you really, really consider the fact that the dividends are plunging each year?
  
  And this looks like the 3 year in a row that Uchi's dividend has fallen. What if the dividend falls again next year?
  
  And if you would really want my opinion, my answer is that ...
  
  I will not invest in Uchi now for its dividends! I call it a PASS. And the reasons are so clear.
  
  1. Product relevancy is an issue.
  2. Plunging sales is an issue.
  3. Plunging profits is an issue.
  4. Plunging cash is a big issue.
  5. Plunging dividends is also an issue.
  
  And when you add in the fact that the owners had shown their utter greed in the shambolic ESOS, I am afraid that I would rather avoid this stock.
  
  Yes, integrity is the biggest issue! Make that point 6.
  
  That's my frank opinion.
  
  And if Uchi goes up, it goes up.
  
  It's not a problem at all for me.
  
  Missing this opportunity in Uchi would not cause me to lose sleep because I know very well that simply isn't an investment for me.
  
  And yes, it's never a crime to sit out and I would rather sit out than to risk my money just for the sake of the dividends.
  
  The concerns is simply too huge to ignore.

And if one bought as Radzian as suggested at 84 sen, one would be laughing all the way to the bank since Uchi is now at 1.39. ( Can see some comments here )

Actually, I find it so rather strange. Is talking about the pro and cons of a stock called bashing? Can't folks discuss on a stock? :D

And as usual, I also wonder, why no one wanted to thank me for highlighting the issue in the first place when I blogged Would You Buy Uchi For Its Dividends?. Uchi was trading between 0.775 and 82 sen on that day. :D LOL! Nah. I would never do that.

Do I feel silly for not buying? LOL! Nope. Would I lose sleep over it? Nope.

Why should I?

Is it a crime not to miss an opportunity? It it?

Say you are poker player and you always win playing poker. However, you do not like black jack cause you can't win in it. One day, you step into your casino. You see the players winning and shouting their ass off on the black jack tables. And you decide to forgo the opportunity to win on the black jack tables. Well is it a crime to miss this opportunity?

Anyway, since Feb, most markets had rallied. Most stocks have rallied too. Some even much better despite the weakness in their fundamentals. Is this not a fact? :D

So how?

When I started blogging on Uchi, it was 3.00+. It fell to as low as 0.75. All this because of my 'bashing'? LOL!

Now Uchi has climbed back up to around 1.39. Am I losing my 'bashing' touch?

LOL!

So amusing.

When one discuss about an issue, and when one is on the other side of the opinion, I guess one is a basher eh?

LOL!