How Now My Dearest Brown Cow?
Monday, June 15, 2009
Looks like a terrible morning for some.
Markets worldwide were hit yesterday and the selling continued this morning.
And more worrying some 'not so good' article postings on CNBC website.
Let's see there's the credit card issue again. Credit Card Default Rate Hits Record High
- U.S. credit card defaults rose to record highs in May, with a steep deterioration of Bank of America's lending portfolio, in another sign that consumers remain under severe stress.
Delinquency rates—an indicator of future credit losses—fell across the industry, but analysts said the decline was due to a seasonal trend, as consumers used tax refunds to pay back debts, and they expect delinquencies to go up again in coming months....
See past postings: The Credit Card Issue
And of course IF one is a trader, the VIX issue is a huge concern. VIX Climbs Past a Key Level, Signaling Trouble for Stocks
- The stock market's main fear gauge moved past a key level on Monday, indicating possible troubles ahead for the market.
And Maria Bartiromo highlights the insider selling issue Caution Signs For Investors
- A couple of signs investors want to be aware of as we digest a 40 percent move upwards in stocks in a 3 month period - valuation alone seems risky.
The S&P is up 39 percent from March 9th to June 12th. Financials are up 100 percent and industrials are up 54 percent. In addition, TrimTabs.com reports that companies and corporate insiders are huge net sellers of shares. Since the start of May, new offerings of $98.5 billion have been 4.6 times higher than the $21.4 billion in new cash takeovers and new stock buybacks. Also, insider selling of $3.9 billion has been 6-times higher than the $650 million in insider buying.
Also as far as the fundamentals of the economy, TrimTabs CEO Charles Biderman reports very few signals that the downturn bottoming, pointing to income tax withholdings plummeting 4.5% y-o-y, which is even steeper than the drop of 4.2% y-o-y in the past three months. He expects declines in withholdings to accelerate this summer because tax refund season is over, 30-year fixed mortgage rates have shot up to 5.6%, and gas prices are at or near $3 per gallon in many areas of the country. Most economists are expecting the unemployment rate to worsen.
On the bright side, the steep decline seems to have slowed and there is still money on the sidelines. TrimTabs says individuals have yet to buy into the rally, indicating the potential of their participation to support the market- which is somewhat bullish from a contrarian perspective. Since the start of May, U.S. equity funds have taken in a modest $7.1 billion even as the average U.S. equity fund has gained 8.6% in price. This week, expect $2.0 billion daily in new offerings and $100 million daily in net insider selling. Biderman says therefore, corporate selling should total $2.1 billion daily, which would be $1.8 billion daily higher than actual corporate buying. Ashraf Laidi mentions recent dollar rhetoric from Russia’s finance minister as well as increased scrutiny over the durability of the recent rally in world stocks leading to a simultaneous retreat in risk appetite, whose currency implications mean broad gains in the dollar and the yen.
The massive selling of stocks by the insiders had been highlighted before. Do take good note of The Insiders Are Selling At Record Highs
Yeah, investors do take note.
It had been one hell of a fantastic trading market and sadly, we all know these 'great' stuff cannot last forever.
And if based on fundamentals, you do know that many of them stocks had no divine rights to fly so high.
So do take note.
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