A Stock Called Ramunia And A Research Report Titled 'The Big IF'

Ramunia announced its earnings. It lost much less money (previous quarter it had 25 million in losses). LOL! (Why did I LOL?! Err.. sometimes, on any given day, things are weird in the market. like for example, losing less is good, it seems. )

Anyway, this article is not about Ramunia current and future prospect. This article is inspired by what had transpired back some couple of years ago, back in Oct 2006.

It's about research reports.

:D

Now most read the report, just to get the 'recommendation' and 'the target prices'. They read it to gauge the potential of the stock. Sometimes, such homework reading works wonders. Sometimes, it doesn't. In fact, sometimes, such reading could prove hazardous for one's financial well being if the stock tanks!

And some would be real quick to conclude that that there are many ways to fish in the market and research report reading is simply a waste of time.

But some still insist that research reports are essential and they would be real quick to point out that this is, simply is life. This is how the game is played in the stock market.

Without the strong brokerage recommendation, without the much higher target price imposed on the stock, how could the stock move higher?

Surely no stock can move themselves, yes? ( Can 'sendiri jalan' meh? Can 'kaki kia' meh? )

Isn't it true?

No?

And needless to say, some judge the quality the quality of the report based on the stock movement.

No?

What good is recommendation if the stock does not move as per the recommendation?

No?

And this is where it gets tricky. If the stock moves as per the recommendation, doesn't it mean that the recommendation was spot on? But what about the facts? What about the quality of the reasoning behind the recommendation? Does it not count?

6 Oct 2006. Ramunia was 1.23. OSK Research gave it a fair value of 1.51. By 25 June 2007, Ramunia hit 1.68!



How dude?

Would you say that OSK is good? Hey the stock outperformed, didn't it?

Now before I highlight the report, consider the following.

Say a stock was earning only some 9.7 million. The next year, the stock was projected to earn some 22.8 million. And the following year 58.8 million. And the following year, the stock was projected to earn a whopping 100.2 million!!!

Yup, the stock is projected to earn from 9.7 million to a whopping 100.2 million.

How?

When you read a research report with such a wild earnings projection, what does this indicate to you? ( LOL! The quick would be fast enough to point out that something smelly is most likely to happen. :P )

6th Oct 2006, OSK released a 13 page report on Ramunia. (There are colored pictures included in the report too! Incredibly, the stock was not rated but OSK specifically said in its closing statement " Nonetheless, Ramunia is well positioned in the industry to ride on the large number of contracts that will likely be awarded in 2007 and 2008. As such, we advise investors to keep a close eye on this company".

The first arrow on the top left indicates the 13 page report on Ramunia. (Such a long and colorful report but yet, OSK did not state boldly their recommendation on the stock.)

And the report was smartly titled, "The Big IF".

LOL! Nice disclaimer already, yes? If things did not pan out as mention in the report, could the report be held accountable?

At the end of the first page..

Yup, that's OSK projection of Ramunia's earnings back on 6 Oct 2006.

From earning 9.7 million in 2005, Ramunia was projected by OSK to earn 22.8 million in fy 2006 to 58.8 million in fy 2007 to 100.2 million in fy 2008!!!

I guess earnings could grow as rapidly like cow grass for Ramunia.

Now, the earnings projection was not the only issue on that screen shot.

• Fair value of RM1.51 derived from 14x PER and 3.0x P/BV on a fully
  diluted basis.

With such a massive earnings growth projection, could you see that the analyst, Chris Eng, did not put which fy earnings the "14x PER" is based on. ( And a 3.0x P/BV??? LOL! Was it justifiable to have a 3.0x BV for Ramunia?) (Will get back to this issue later.)

So based on historical and current earnings trend back in 2006, how was Ramunia's performance? Was there any REAL justification for OSK to make such incredible earnings projection?

How? It was only a 'credible' performance as per OSK standard. (ps, yeah, Ramunia's NTA is only 0.66 sen. :P)

Yeah and it was credible despite "..EBITDA margins declined from 20.1% to 13.5% as the mix of contracts varied."

And the nice colored chart showed zero signs of Ramunia's potential explosive earnings growth as suggested by OSK.

LOL! Of course OSK justifies the explosive growth by stating the massive potential from its order book..

Of course, the analyst was quick to point out the risk for such projection in Ramunia.. (yeah.. how could he and OSK be held accountable since the report was already titled "The Big IF"



Nicely put, eh? "Big on promise, uncertainty on delivery"!!!

Does this means that the promise is there.. whether Ramunia can deliver or not, is another story all together.

And of course, there is the dilution in earnings..

It's only a dilution of some 43%.

Yeah, only 43%.

LOL! And yeah, it's a necessary evil.

So despite the massive dilution in future earnings by some 43%, and the risk of Ramunia unable to deliver its promise, this did not stop OSK from making the following valuation.

Quote: "Based on these parameters and a share base of 788.4m to value Ramunia. We value Ramunia with an EPS on 7.46 sen."

Multiplying the earnings per share of 7.46 with the share base of 788.4 million, we get an earnings of 58.8 million.

Which means despite all the risk mention, OSK is basing their valuation on an EXTREMELY optimistic fy 2007 earnings projection of 58.8 million.

Increible since in fy 2005, Ramunia earned only some 9.7 million.

(LOL! See how easy the game is played? Project the earnings sky high, then you will have the much higher target price for the stock! Easy peasy, eh? :P)

And of course, OSK had the nice 'disclaimer'..

Let's fast forward. December 2008. So how did Ramunia do for its fy 2008?

Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/10/2008

Ramunia recorded a whopping 279 million in losses!

And Ramunia today trades less than 0.40 sen.

Ah... but some would say that this is a non issue. Ramunia did move much higher after the research report was published.

Ah... but some would also say that OSK was not the ONLY brokerage that was positive on Ramunia back on those days. Others were just as optimistic.

Ah... but some would also say this 0.40 sen is not a fair reflection because of there's the dilution caused by the conversion of warrants and then if not mistaken, there was also a rights issue back in 2008.

:D

ps... Wishing everyone a happy 2010. :D