Smoke And Mirrors!
Tuesday, August 8, 2006
Gary Dorsch of Sirchartsalot wrote an interesting piece: Central Bankers Operating behind "Smoke and Mirrors".
Here is a snippet of what he is saying:
The synchronized phase of monetary tightening by the world's three largest
central banks, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan (BoJ), and the European
Central Bank (ECB), appears to be fizzling-out almost as soon as it started. The
Fed is widely expected to wind down its rate hike campaign on August 8th, less
than a month after the BoJ raised its overnight rate for the first time in five
years.
The Fed is moving to the sidelines to join the central banks of
Canada and Korea, which declined to raise their overnight loan rates last month.
That might encourage other central banks to keep their interest rates on hold. A
residual quarter-point rate hike by the BoJ to 0.50% in the fourth quarter, and
two quarter-point rate hikes by the ECB to 3.50% are expected, before the big-3
tightening spree flickers out.
Central bankers are utilizing a strategy
of "Smoke and Mirrors," mesmerizing the traders with baby-step rate hikes, but
falling far short of the levels needed to shrink their money supply. Whether the
central bank is printing money to maintain an artificially low exchange rate, or
flooding the banking system with money to peg an artificially low interest rate,
the net result is the same - monetary inflation.
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