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Yeah Do Not Call It Investing!!!

Thursday, January 18, 2007

Martin Goldberg posted the following commentary on FSO Market Warp: ( Market WrapUp for Thursday, January 18 by Martin Goldberg ).

Here is a snippet of what he is saying.

  • Don't Call It "Investing"
    BY MARTIN GOLDBERG

    It isn’t investing. Not today. Not in this stock market. Not with all this crazy stuff going on within it. Not without any dividends. Not with these valuations. Not with this amount of overtrading. Not with all of this insider selling. Not without any insider buying. Not with all these hedge funds. Not with all of this shareholder dilution. Not with all this margin debt. Not with all the stock options. Not in this economy. Don’t insult my intelligence. Don’t call it investing. It is not investing – it is speculating.

    Hold the valuation rationales for the US stock market. They don’t hold water or pass mustard. You can’t rely on Fed action saving most US stock portfolios forever. Sure, they can hold things up while the public is fooled into doing what they normally wouldn’t do, presumably for the good of the short term economy. (Spend excessively and incur mountains of debt.) But know that this is not sustainable, although at times like this it may appear as though it is. But in the long term, valuations will prevail (they always do). When will valuations prevail? It will occur sometime between tomorrow and when the majority of the US Baby Boomers retire. Sorry, I cannot be more specific; but what do I know anyway? Cramer I’m not. (And not being Cramer will have its day in the sun as well.)

    Small dividends, small value. Big dividends, big value. No rationale will ever change that; although at times like this, it is tempting to try to invent or buy into someone else’s rationale. You get less than 2% yield for the S&P 500 and less most other places in the US market. So to buy it is to depend on another person or thing standing behind you to pay more than you did for your sub 2% yield. This is possible for a finite amount of time. This is even appropriate. If there’s a good chart, buy it. Got a bad chart? Don’t buy it. But for now, let’s not kid ourselves. If you do this, you are not investing; you are speculating.

    With every tick up, this market gains some more credibility with the public, it seems, and this is good for someone’s business. With every tick up the rationales become a tick more palatable. Another contrarian joins the crowd. The market continues to be its own soothsayer. In turn it ticks up again, and then this feeds back again and again and again. It's working like a charm now as it seems that even one day of selling is met by “bargain hunters.” Even the technicians can’t find an acceptable entry point in the form of a pullback, so all they can do is chase. It’s a lot of fun; but let’s not kid ourselves because it isn’t investing and shouldn’t be called that. Call it chasing. Call it speculating. Call it playing the market. Call it herd behavior. But don’t call it “investing.”

    And while were at calling things what they actually are, don’t call it a private equity deal; call it corporate rape.

Yes?

Don't look at me this way. You and I know it, right? Well if you don't, do try to read what Mr.Goldberg is saying here!

Cheers!





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